The butchering of HS2, Wales and the NWML…

So, this week, Rishi Sunak, No 10 and HMT announced “Network North”[i].  This in effect killed HS2 and included in the small print £1Bn for the electrification of the NWML.  So, in Wales, all good,  yes?  Well maybe not, let’s take a closer look.

Figure 1 Network North Illustration from No10 Oct. 2023!

First what a poor butcher’s job we have witnessed. Whilst I have been critical of HS2 for a number of reasons in the past, we do need more rail capacity in the UK.  What really killed HS2 (and as I have mentioned in earlier blogs) was the insistence to go so fast (trying to secure more transport user benefits) so adding many more costs.  We know how to do 180mph, going way over 200mph required new engineering skills, expertise, kit, standards, etc and as it turns out, a lot more tunnelling! As I mentioned in a note to then Secretary of State for Transport Justine Greening in 2011, HS2 should have been more focussed on capacity and less so speed.  In fact, as I have said in the past, it would have been better being called “High Capacity 2” and not “High Speed 2”. 

Now with the butchery we have a rump project that is a grossly scaled down version of the original vision that leaves the UK with 80% of the costs but perhaps only 20% of the benefits.  In fact, most of the benefits were associated with the extra capacity and journey time reductions from Birmingham to Manchester, Leeds, Liverpool,  etc….and most of the costs with the ridiculous need to tunnel a new High-Speed line through the Chilterns!  If I was Andy Burnham, Steve Rotherham, Tracy Brabin, etc I would be pretty narked off. As narked off as Mark Drakeford given the vanishingly small amounts of UK Government rail enhancement investment in Wales over the last 20 years.  This really is a huge UK Government cock up.  I am delighted that in contrast Welsh Government are holding their nerve and intent on completing and expanding the south Wales Metro – despite the cost challenges – so as to the preserve and augment the benefits.

Let’s also be clear, no matter what the scope of HS2, it never at the macro scale benefitted Wales and presented a huge opportunity cost.  We have many other rail investment priorities in Wales that need funding, but because of the non-devolved status of rail mean they will likely never get funded, especially with HS2 “eating the pie”.

Looking back, and as some have quoted me, the decision by the WG not to take on the same rail powers as Scotland when offered by Westminster in  2004/5 is the biggest mistake since devolution.  What if!

Despite the announcement last week, are there any silver linings for Wales.   Well maybe  the £1Bn commitment to the NWML electrification if taken at face value is  good news….. (PS – although the amount of backtracking since the announcement suggests there is no real UK Gov commitment to the funding or timing thereof, for rail enhancement of the NWML or anywhere else in Wales for that matter. I remain sceptical). But as I have written before it does not address 30 years of gross underfunding of Wales rail infrastructure by UK Govs – not even close!

However, and I am closer to the details than even No10 appears to be, there has been no recent detailed work undertaken on the NWML electrification, and I can assure you it will cost a lot more than £1Bn.  I also know that we have many other interventions on that corridor that are a higher priority than electrification (and will soon be re-endorsed by Lords Burns NWTC).

In fact, Welsh Government(WG) via Transport for Wales (TfW) and its North Wales Metro Programme (of which DfT, NR and others are part) ably led by Ruth Wojtan, have worked up business cases for a range of priority interventions on the NWML to enable faster and more frequent services (inc. new local all stopper services) that can begin to provide an alternative to car use.  Having, at best, a train every 60 mins (and often longer) from Conway or Abergele, for example, is never going to be a better option than the car – whether it is electrified or not! Improving service frequencies at those stations is clearly more of a priority than electrification. More stark is that we are, in effect, still dealing with “Victorian signalling” west of Llandudno junction as well as major capacity and operational constraints at Chester.

In Wales WG, TfW and the local authorities are working on holistic joined up public transport plan for rail, bus and active travel all across the country.  However, and what stymies effective delivery in Wales, is that the decisions on rail investment are made by the DfT/UK Gov.   This can’t ever work – especially given the major policy differences – and is a constitutional dysfunction.

More stark is that UK Gov  (as an interim measure in my view) has been working via a new Wales Rail Boad (along with WG, TfW, NR, etc)  on agreeing a  formal  list of Wales rail investment priorities.  That list has been drafted (based on much detailed work by TfW, NR, etc and others over the last 4-5 years going back to my 2018 Case for Investment[ii] and earlier)  and shared with that Rail Board.

The fact that the announcement this week was made without any reference to WG, the Wales Rail Board or as it seems, Network Rail or even the Department of Transport in London(!), is frankly very poor by No10 and HMT. I’d go further and say it was dysfunctional and suggests that these announcements are just pre-election confetti.   Anyone looking at the cobbled together “Network North” map   Figure 1  must surely see how rushed and amateurish it is. It looks more like something Jackson Pollock might have knocked up rather than being the output of a serious transport planning exercise! In fact, the additional commitment of the £1Bn for NWML may only have been included to try and counter calls for full Barnett treatment of rail spend in England. 

Even with the £1Bn announcement, Wales has still been left short of at least £3Bn over the last 15-20 years[iii] and with the £100Bn of rail enhancement plans still on the books in England, will be short of £2-3Bn looking ahead to 2040.  £1Bn for north Wales is but a down payment on the full £4-5Bn needed in Wales and commensurate with investment elsewhere in the UK.

PS – For a longer and more in-depth explanation read this draft chapter

I am not sure how much more evidence we need in Wales to support the full devolution of all such matters. I also think the same provision are needed in the regions of England.  For too long major capital investment decisions in the UK have been vested in few people in and around Westminster/Whitehall, with very little appreciation of the needs and requirements in England’s major city regions, let alone Scotland and Wales.  The data for capital funding per capita across the UK  Figure 2 clearly demonstrates the imbalance given the very high levels of investment in London relative to everywhere else in the UK.

Scotland also does pretty well in part due to the full Barnett treatment of all rail investment, inc HS2. I also know the figure for Wales below is overstated somewhat as they include an allocation of some of the HS2 capital spend (this type of accounting entry should not have got past an auditor)! This gross imbalance in capital funding can only be addressed through a major constitutional overhaul and a radical revision of how HMT allocates capital funding. For me, the funding and decision making thereof, has to reside on a more formulaic basis in Manchester, Leeds, Bristol, etc as well as in Cardiff, Edinburgh and Belfast – and NOT in London!

Figure 2 From HMT Country and Regional Analysis (Wales figures overstated due to allocation of HS2 capital!)

But we are where we are. So, for me what Wales needs now:

• Welcome and confirm the £1Bn for North Wales and apply that funding to the existing work in development via TfW’s North Wales Metro Programme (which as I said is aligned with the Wales Rail Board and all Wales Enhancement priorities that DfT, NR, WG are also engaged with). Aside from the NWML upgrade  re line speed and capacity, Chester station, etc also includes full Borderlands integration with Merseyrail

• Secure a further  UK Gov commitment of £2-3Bn for the schemes in development in the rest of Wales.  These include
  • SMWL upgrade – inc. OLE – recommend by Burns and UK Govs own Union Connectivity Review under Sir Peter Hendy and now endorsed by the Western Gateway in its 2050 Rail Vision,  Swansea Metro Phase 1More CCR Metro, Cardiff West overhaul, Cardiff Crossrail, etc)
  • Marches Line upgrade

• Then full devolution of rail powers and funding to WG. This is not just about HS2 (needs to apply to all English rail spend) it’s about WG being properly funded and empowered and so able to deliver joined up multi modal transport policy.

There is GE coming up and addressing this dysfunction is a red line for me.

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[i] What the plan to launch Network North means for you – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[ii] Wales’ Rail Network – The Case for Investment – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)

[iii] Historical investment in rail infrastructure enhancements [HTML] | GOV.WALES