This blog first published in 2019 to support the Cardiff Council Transport White Paper…
PS Jan 2023 – Worth looking at #1 in this blog re: pragmatic phasing of Cardiff Crossrail…A few more Jan 2023 PSs below as well…
Cardiff Council have just announced a key component in their developing transport vision – A Cardiff Crossrail. This is part of a wider rapid transit network for the city (using Bus Rapid Transit and Tram-train) Figure 1 and which builds upon the improvements and leverages the capabilities, to be delivered as part of the next phase of the South Wales Metro Figure 11. I was pleased to be able to help Cardiff Council bring these proposals forward. PS Jan 2023: Later included in CCR Rail Vision and the formal WG funded TfW Metro Development Programme for Cardiff and the CCR.
Figure 1 Proposed Cardiff Rapid Transit Network (this is just an illustration!)
Cardiff Crossrail will transform connectivity across the city and open up areas for new development and regeneration form Plas Dwr & Fairwater through Canton, Central Quay and Butetown to Splott, Tremorfa and onto Cardiff Parkway.
This will help address the primary issue facing Cardiff; it is dealing with the legacy of a transport network designed for a city with less than 300,000 people but needing to develop a network for one with more than 400,000 at the heart of a city region of 1.6 million people, with increasing numbers of those people wishing to travel to/from and across the city.
I have written about a Cardiff Crossrail on a number of occasions over the last decade following publication of my first thoughts on the concept in 2012/3:
- Institute of Welsh Affairs Article in 2013[i]
- Rail Professional article in 2013[ii]
- Crossrail Article for Mainspring’s Tram News in 2013
- Metro and Me in 2018[iii]
- M4 Article in June this year[iv]
- Cardiff Bay Line Article[v]
- We also covered its component parts in the 2013 Metro Impact Study[vi]
PS Jan 2023: Whilst I coined the expression “Cardiff Crossrail” over a beer with the then Chair of the actual Crossrail Terry Morgan in about 2011/12, and developed the concept for Cardiff Council’s Transport White Paper as the entirety of a route from east to west across the city, it should be noted that the original idea of running tram-train across the docks from the east and the tidal sidings to connect to the bay line came from a Gary Draisey at NR in about 2009/10.
Now it has raised its profile again, but this time with intent. This is as a result of the application of tram-train technology currently being implemented by Transport for Wales[vii] on the valley lines through Pontypridd and more importantly the commitment of Cardiff Council[viii][ix] to actively support/promote the scheme.
This demonstrates the ambition we need right across the region to really build a Metro Development plan out to 2030 that benefits the whole region. More recently the decision to cancel the M4 relief road brings into sharp relief the need to provide viable alternatives to car travel across the region.
Key Challenges…What is the Problem?
Before I get into what it might look like, let’s set out some issue/challenges and perhaps the key problems it needs to address.
This needs to be set with the context of a “Climate Change Emergency” which requires more radical intervention across all policy areas and the implicit requirement for a much greater role for public transport and active travel in our mobility ecosystem. PS Jan 2023 – Net Zero Wales and my submission to the Senedd Climate Change Committee worth a look
Transport connectivity also plays an important role in determining both economic and well-being outcomes, therefore it is crucial that we improve intra-city connectivity and reduce journey times to enhance access to employment opportunities.
As the capital city of Wales, Cardiff also fulfils a significant role as the regional and national centre for a number of organisations and facilities. This results in a significant number of retail, leisure and tourism visitors to the city many of whom originate from outside the city itself.
We also need to reduce the impacts of the long-term induced demand for car usage which is damaging our environment. I covered some of these issues in my article on Transit Oriented Development in the Cardiff Capital Region[x] earlier in 2019. PS Jan 2023 – this blog covers the car use issue as I hope this video explainer does re induced demand.
Cars still dominate our mobility
There is another harsh reality to face when dealing with this issue. Across Wales, most of us commute in cars; in fact in 2017 Figure 2 over 80% of us used cars with only 4% on train and another 4% on bus. In Cardiff these figures are better, but still over 50% of all journeys are made in a car; whilst rail and bus use is less than 20%!
Figure 2 Welsh Gov, 2017 Mode Share in Wales for Commuting
Today the rail network from the valleys into Cardiff only handles about 12% of total demand; services are poor and unattractive versus alternative modes – especially car. The contracted Metro solution will enable a doubling of capacity of the network into Cardiff and drive more demand. However, there may be a need assess whether this is sufficient over the next 15 years. Perhaps we should be planning on much more…I think we should.
Most people in Cardiff have little or no access to rail services!
Figure 3 Access to rail from most densely populated parts of SE Wales
The 2103 Metro Impact Study found that the highest and most densely populated parts of South East Wales with the least access to rail services are in Newport and the East of Cardiff Figure 3. In fact many people in Cardiff have no access to rail services and those that are near a local station are perhaps only offered services of 2tph (e.g. City Line and Coryton Line) making other options (including the car) more attractive. After the next phase of Metro in 2023/4, less than 25% of the population of Cardiff will be within 800M of a Metro rail station offering 4 or more services an hour; by contrast the equivalent figure for RCT is 34%.
This is important given need to support more employment in places like Pontypridd, Nantgarw, Newport, Merthyr, etc – as most of the population of Cardiff can’t access such locations without a car and so will contribute to peak time road congestion without an alternative. PS Jan 2023 – Even post Covid we still need to provide sustainable travel options for such trips
So, it’s not just about getting to Cardiff city centre, it’s about making it easier for more people to get to other places, so that we can support a more polycentric city region. I also covered the concept of multi-modal PT grids to connect many more origin and destination points in my Transport Planning blog early in 2022
For example, I am sure some businesses would prefer not to be in Cardiff paying £20+ per sq. ft when then could be paying less in Pontypridd. The constraint on such is how many staff can get to Pontypridd easily. Without further interventions the well-meaning intentions of locating new offices for TfW in Pontypridd and DWP in Nantgarw, will be undermined if more people can’t get to those locations more easily from across the region. This includes from across Cardiff which is the most densely populated local authority in Wales and whose wider “Built Up Area” (BUA) is amongst the most densely populated in the UK[xi].
Cardiff is a fast growing City
Figure 4 Mid-year population estimates 1991 to 2017
Whilst the population of the wider region is expected to grow by perhaps 100k to 1.6M by 2030, over 50% of that growth is expected to be in Cardiff itself with numbers expected to grow from 365,000 in 2017[xii] Figure 4 ; projections suggest it will grow to 400,000 by the middle of the next decade which maintains a trend since 2000 when the city’s population was only 310,000.
Figure 5 Cardiff Population Growth
In addition Cardiff is also a major employer and centre for the wider city region. Statistics on commuting[xiii] suggest that in 2018, nearly 90,000 people commute into Cardiff every day and a further 140,000 from within the city itself making up over 230,000 working in the city representing 34% of total employment in South East Wales.
Cardiff is not the Emerald City
Whilst there is economic growth and more employment in Cardiff, it doesn’t tell the whole story – there are some real challenges in some parts of the city.
The Gross Value Added (GVA) per capita of Cardiff and The Vale of Glamorgan[xiv] is currently around 95% of the UK average having fallen from a figure of 100% in 2003.
Post Script – based on new data sets On the basic numbers, Cardiff now (now separated out from earlier Cardiff & Vale figures– perhaps an economist can comment?) has a GDP/capita of 112% of the UK average[WSW xii]; but on Household Income the figure for Cardiff and the Vale is only 84% of the UK Average[WSW xiii]. Weekly wages also shows that Cardiff is not the highest in Wales[WSW xiv] and Cardiff has more Lower Super Output Areas (LSOA)[WSW xv] in the top 10% of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) than any other local authority in Wales[WSW xvi]. Cardiff has 39, the next nearest is RCT on 27 with Blaenau Gwent on 6. I don’t want to underplay the economic issues across Wales, but the reality is that the challenges facing some communities in the valleys are not that different from places like Tremorfa or Ely.
Overall GVA per capita is lower in Wales than in any other UK country or region. Whilst Cardiff & Vales GVA per capita is just below the UK average, other parts of the region are significantly lower, for example the Central Valleys which is about 60%. That’s why developing a Metro that can support more employment in places like Merthyr and Pontypridd is so important. I am also very conscious that in many parts of the region more imaginative economic development and regeneration interventions are required.
Figure 6 GVA per capita versus 2016 UK average
The last ten years have seen a growth in service sector employment in the city whilst other sectors such as manufacturing now employ less people. These trends have led to areas of denser employment typically located in the city centre.
This contrasts with some major economic and social challenges in other parts of the city – which has 18% of its Lower Super Output Areas (LSOAs) in the top 10% of Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation[xv] ( in places like Ely, Rumney, Llanrumney and Llanederyn Figure 7 Figure 8; many of these correlate to parts of the city with poor connectivity.
Figure 7 Cardiff has 10% of its LSOA in top 10% of most deprived LSOAs on WIMD in Wales
Figure 8 Comparison of number of LSOAs in bottom 10% of WIMD across SE Wales[xvi]
We also face an uncertain economic future with wider global forces, Artificial Intelligence and Climate Change likely to mean major changes to how our economies function. Nonetheless, no matter what transpires, I am convinced that we will need much better public transport.
Cardiff Council’s LDP adopted in 2016 proposes significant additional areas of employment and housing (for example the major developments in the NW of the City). It is also likely that in the period to 2030 new sites may come forward and/or be enabled by improved accessibility and densification of existing areas. The development of Metro on a regional basis also needs to be integrated with the plans for a Strategic Development Plan for the region.
Figure 9 Cardiff LDP Diagram
Cardiff’s primary development issue is, perhaps, the transport challenge associated with the major housing planned in the NW of the city over the next 15 years. Whilst I am no fan of unnecessary green field development, I acknowledge there will always be a need for some. However, in bringing forward such plans we must ensure public transport, active travel, mixed used and development density are fully integrated. The Cardiff Crossrail and the extension into RCT from NW Cardiff does provide an opportunity to revise plans to ensure more development density along route. Without Cardiff Crossrail I am not sure we can justify such a large development which will inevitably generate many more car journeys without a viable public transport alternative. This is something we also looked at in the 2013 Metro Impact Study Figure 10 .
Figure 10 Illustration of NW Corridor proposals from 2103 Metro Impact Study
What will Metro deliver….
Welsh Government, via Transport for Wales, awarded a new rail contract to KeolisAmey (branded Transport for Wales Rail Services) in 2018 which will deliver major improvements in the network of rail routes and services which connect to Cardiff by 2024 as part of the South Wales Metro. PS Covid put pay to that KA agreement
The key features of Metro solution relevant to Cardiff are:
- New Heavy Rail ‘Tri-mode’ trains on the Rhymney Line which can be powered by overhead electrification, on-board batteries or diesel engine. These trains operate from Caerphilly (6tph) and Coryton (2tph). Services will operate through Cardiff Central to the to the Vale of Glamorgan (VoG) line and destinations to Penarth and Bridgend.
- Tram-train Light Rail Metro Vehicles Figure 12 will operate from Treherbert (4tph), Aberdare (4tph) and Merthyr Tydfil (4tph) via Pontypridd (12tph) with ten of these services travelling to Cardiff Central/Cardiff Bay via the Llandaff branch and two travelling to Cardiff Central via the City Line.
- New stations will be added to the network at Loudon Square (Butetown), opposite the Wales Millennium Centre (Cardiff Bay) Crwys Road and Gabalfa. PS Jan 2023 – this has changed a little following a design review to accommodate Cardiff Crossrail – So no Loudon Sq, no “Flourish station opposite the Millennium Centre, but an upgrade to the current Cardiff Bay station, a new station at Butetown north (further north than Loudon Sq) . Gabalfa station (like other potential new stations) needs funding…! See this from a Jan 2023 TfW “Cardiff Crossrail” consultation….
Fig X – Cardiff Central – Newport Rd Cardiff Crossrail Options from TfW
Figure 11 TfW Illustration of Metro rail proposed by 2023 (prob 2024 now! – with some bay line changes as per above!
What it won’t deliver…
The Metro will provide an upgrade in rail services and experience across the region and the city. However, the contracted solution does result in some compromises for local Cardiff services as detailed in a paper I submitted to the Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee at the National Assembly (November 2018)[xvii] namely:
- 2tph services on the Coryton and City Lines will limit the ability of Metro to provide an effective alternative to the car in some parts of Cardiff; as a minimum these lines should be 4tph (the same as the rest of the core valley network). This is still a glaring issue in 2023, see Jan 2023 Update re Moan#1!
- Exclusive use of the Tri-mode trains on the Rhymney and Coryton lines is a constraint on potential future extensions beyond Coryton and perhaps the Cardiff Circle.
- Vale of Glamorgan and City Line services (and therefore the potential North West Corridor) are restricted by capacity constraints of rail routes at Cardiff West junction in Canton.
- There are still good cases for further stations in the city on the existing network. These include Roath Park, Rover Way and Ely Mill (and Gabalfa!). PS all now included in the formal TfW Metro Development Programme for Cardiff and the CCR but need Capital Funding!
Metro Extendibility Capability
Figure 12 City Link Light Rail Tram-train “Metro Vehicles”
The contracted solution from TfW Rail enables both network and services extensions such as the Cardiff Crossrail, through the application of tram-trains which allows more cost and engineering flexibility than is possible with a pure Heavy Rail solution. They can operate on tighter curves, steeper gradients, require shorter passing loops as well running “on-street” and operating to Line of Sight “tramway” protocols. This presents significant opportunities across the region as well as in Cardiff (See my paper from 2018[xviii]).
Emerging Vision for Transport in Cardiff
Core to Cardiff’s transport vision, therefore, is the incremental development of a Rapid Transit Network as illustrated in Figure 1.
This network will augment the new stations and services proposed as part of the South Wales Metro, exploit tram-train technology and make use of existing and new rail corridors. These rail-based interventions will be integrated with new bus priority corridors, a redesigned bus network and active travel measure to dramatically enhance public transport and active travel accessibility across the city.
I’ll focus on the Cardiff Crossrail & Circle lines here (I’ll cover buses and active travel in a future article). This Jan 2023 blog has some up to date insight
Core to the emerging vision of Cardiff Council is the incremental development of a “Cardiff Crossrail” Figure 13 using tram-train technology being introduced as part of the South Wales Metro. This will be the essential foundation of an ambitious long-term programme to encourage more public transport use across the city.
Figure 13 Illustration of a potential Cardiff Crossrail from the CCC White Paper (note subsequent bay line changes and station locations following initial Crossrail development work at TfW)
There are 4 distinct sections which can be phased:
#1 Cardiff Central/Lloyd George Avenue (LGA)/Cardiff Bay (to Pierhead St – tbc)
This section will provide a direct connection between Cardiff Bay and Cardiff Central. Funding now committed for the essential link from Cardiff Central across Callaghan Square to the Bay Line. This will involve new at-grade platforms at Cardiff Central – with an alignment safeguarded back up “the ramp” to the throat at Cardiff West.
The application of tram-trains on the bay line can also be a catalyst for a major landscaping and regeneration project – A Greenway. Greenway projects re-purpose older industrial artefacts in cities to form new community spaces combining green space, active travel and public transport with community regeneration and development projects.
Figure 32 Illustration of potential Vancouver Arbutus Greenway Light Rail [xix]
Learning from examples like the Arbutus Greenway in Vancouver[xx], Cardiff Council could repurpose the existing bay line corridor incorporating some new development but also green spaces and active travel routes.
PS – this essential first section from Cardiff Central to the Bay Line (and ideally onto Pierhead Street) is a foundation for, an enables all future phases, received UK Government and Welsh Government support in Jan 2023. Still more ££ required for the full scheme and the urban realm and landscaping of LGA/Bute street!
#2 Cardiff West Junction & City Line
This section requires early tactical action to address the network constraint at Cardiff West to enable at least 4tph on the City Line. A later more strategic and likely grade separated, intervention will enable more services to VoG/Penarth and an extension to NW Cardiff. A new station can also be introduced at Victoria Park/Ely Mill and the role of Waungron Park as a bus interchange will become much more important with this improved rail services offering. This section will also include the essential link between the city line at the western end of Cardiff Central to the extended bay line (#1 above) to Cardiff Central. This will also free up platform capacity at Cardiff Central for more SWML services by re-routing some CVL services to the new Crossrail platforms. It will also provide major network benefits (increased capacity and redundancy) as it enables an alternative high capacity route from the valley lines into Central Station(using the new Crossrail platforms) and to the bay (avoiding Queen St).
PS Jan 2023 – depending on ££, timing and scale of works (tactical and strategic) required at Cardiff West this could be delivered with a Crossrail connection to Penarth subject to OLE on the Penarth branch and the operation of Tram-trains for that service. The VoG/Penarth line is still a UK Gov NR managed asset so needs a commitment from the UK DfT to fund.
#3 Cardiff Bay or Pierhead Street to Rover Way/Newport Rd (including the potential to connect to Porth Teigr).
A new station at Rover Way will interchange with main line rail services and support a bus interchange for access to the east of the city. The service could also be extended on the relief lines to Cardiff Parkway and beyond. This section requires a new link from Cardiff Bay/Pierhead Street through the docks to an upgraded Tidal Sidings freight line which can also support additional stations including Splott/Tremorfa and at/near Ocean Way in an area that it poorly served by rail and is also in the top 10% of WIMD.
PS Jan 2023 – it is currently though unlikely that “Cardiff Crossrail” tram-trains could run beyond Newport Rd/Rover way onto the SWML to Cardiff Parkway (or further east). This would constrain operations and use SWML capacity needed for additional SWML services to Bristol for example. Instead a high quality interchange between Cardiff Crossrail and SWML services is a more pragmatic solution, This would also support a major TOD regeneration at that location.
#4 NW Cardiff extension to RCT from the City Line
This is an entirely new section that can be phased and serve the new housing at PlasDwr, support a major P&R at M4 J33 and run through Creigiau and onto Rhondda Cynon Taf (RCT) via Talbot Green to Pontyclun (and an interchange with SWML services); a potential for a spur to Beddau can also be considered. This route provides an opportunity to develop complementary higher density housing and mixed-use schemes using Transit Oriented Development principles along the entire route. This phase will likely need to be developed as part of the regional Strategic Development Plan for the Cardiff Capital Region.
Complementary Schemes: Cardiff Circle & Tram-train to Penarth
Figure 14 Illustration of potential Cardiff Circle line
- To complement the Crossrail proposals and to deliver better E-W connectivity across the north of the city, a new connection between the Coryton Line and Radyr/Taffs Well is proposed to create a Cardiff Circle Figure 14. Whether there will actually be circle service is less important than delivering a link between the Coryton Line and the city Line over the river at Forest Farm. One variant could see dedicated Cardiff tram-train services operating at up to 6tph from a terminus (and interchange with Rhymney Line services) at Heath west on the Coryton Line, across the river to Radyr then down the City Line (via a modified grade separated Cardiff west junction ) to the new platforms at Central and then across Callaghan Square to connect with the line to the Bay. The removal of Coryton Line services from the Rhymney Line would free up more capacity for services to Caerphilly and beyond. PS Jan 2023 there are a number of variants that are being explored – but the Circle should be viewed as an integral part of the overall Cardiff Crossrail project – as should connectivity to Penarth as set out below.
- Once network capacity issues are addressed at Cardiff West via a “quick win tactical fix” (although it ultimately needs grade-separation to support new NW Corridor services) and subject to further investment it should be possible to operate tram-trains to Penarth (which would enable extension to Lower Penarth/Cosmeston in due course). PS Jan 2023 – there is an option/opportunity to connect Penarth services to Crossrail – even in advance of the NW corridor extension – as set out here
There are a wide range of benefits that can be secured from the development of a rapid transit network in Cardiff. Perhaps the most important are:
- Most importantly the provision of a public transport service able to sustainably support mobility for a city of over 400,000 people at the heart of a developing city region 1.6M people
- Improved cross city connectivity and accessibility of parts of Cardiff (especially when combined with major bus interchanges and a redesigned bus network) suffering economic challenges (including Splott, Tremorfa and Ely which are in the top 10% of Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD)
- Development and community regeneration across the southern arc of Cardiff from PlasDwr, Fairwater and Ely in the west through Central Quay, Butetown and Cardiff Bay to Tremorfa, Splott, Rover Way and Cardiff Parkway in the east; as well as Gabalfa, Forest Farm, Roath Park and Heath Hospital in the north.
- Addressing transport constraints associated with the PlasDwr development and helping bring forward further Transit Oriented Development (TOD) along the route into RCT (all the way via Talbot Green to Pontyclun) and to the east from Roath Dock to Newport Rd/Rover way
- Transforming the Bay Line into an urban park via a regeneration and development project that can fully integrate Butetown into the wider city
- A direct metro connection between Cardiff Bay and Cardiff Central
- A major Park & Ride at M4J33
- Station based development and regeneration initiatives along the line
- Improved employment catchment of Newport, Bridgend, Barry, Pontypridd as well as Cardiff City Centre and Bay.
Furthermore, the Cardiff Crossrail connection to Newport Rd and an interchange with SWML services at that location (as above, unlikely to operate Crossrail services onto the SWML to Cardiff Parkway (and beyond) supports better connectivity from the east to Cardiff Bay and new developments such as the arena .
Perhaps most strategically, addressing the rail network constraint at Cardiff West junction in Canton delivers more network capacity and redundancy to the lines into the valleys north of Cardiff and to Penarth and Barry on the Vale of Glamorgan line.
The Cardiff Circle proposal will also deliver better E-W connectivity across the north of the city and perhaps more importantly, help enhance the employment catchment of Merthyr, Pontypridd & Nantgarw as more of the significant population of north and north east Cardiff would be able to travel to those locations using public transport far more easily than is the case today.
Welsh Government and Transport for Wales need a pat on the back!
We have to step back here and give credit where credit is due. Transport for Wales (TfW) did not exist until 2015. Yet less than three years later it had concluded the biggest and most complex procurement in Welsh Government (WG) history. That is pretty impressive and should tell us that we should not be so down on ourselves so much of the time – it’s a Welsh trait that is not always helpful!
I would also point out for the record that without devolution there would be no South Wales Metro or any prospect of a Cardiff Crossrail. Under the stewardship of the DfT and UK Government schemes like this just didn’t happen. I covered this broader powers and lack of rail investment issue for WG in 2018 in ,”The Case for Investment”.[xxi] PS Jan 2023 – but note the welcome UK Gov funding now for the first phase of Cardiff Crossrail. It is small beer though (eg given £100BN for the IRP) so worth reading this re the funding gap and this re the failings of the UK rail industry ecosystem re Wales.
Therefore, Welsh Government and TfW are to be congratulated for pushing the South Wales Metro, despite that fact that rail infrastructure is a non-devolved matter and UK funding (which should in my view have covered all the capex) only makes up a small proportion of the £734M for the next phase of Metro. (PS Jan 2023 – with Covid and Inflation now likely to be ~£1Bn)
Similarly we should also support the leadership and officials at Cardiff Council for embracing the potential of Metro through schemes like Cardiff Crossrail. Its that kind of leadership and not just lines on a map that make projects like these a reality.
Fundamental to the delivery of Crossrail are measures to address the network capacity at Cardiff West and how the city line connects to the bay line south of Cardiff Central. A detailed feasibility and timetabling study is needed to fully assess the options to help ensure early progress on this essential component.
Early action on this matter will vitally enable an increase in service frequency on the City Line; when combined with enhancement at for example, Danescourt station and improved bus interchange, the new developments in NW Cardiff could initially be served by a local bus service connecting to rail services at Danescourt? Similarly, bus interchange at a new Ely Mill/Victoria Park station could be connected to better bus services from Ely.
PS Jan 2023 – progress to address the Cardiff West issue is being made – but needs UK Gov DfT capital funding commitment to address (note the Crossrail funding was from the UK Government Levelling Up Dept NOT the Department for Transport which is leading on the £100Bn Integrated rail Plan for England …but has less that £400M committed to Wales! )
The scheme in totality or in sections also needs to be subject to Business Case Development using Welsh Government’s Transport Appraisal Guidelines and detailed scheme development – this when we get into the details re: specifics of routes, alignments, services and stations. Transport for Wales and Network Rail (esp. as regards Cardiff West) will need to be part of the core team, with Transport for Wales leading on its development and delivery.
PS Jan 2023 this development work is now being funded (WG, CCC and the CCR) & developed through TfWs formal Cardiff and Capital Region Metro Development Programme
These proposals also require a major planning programme as some works require a Transport Works Act Order (TWAO) and so much necessary public engagement and consultation.
The recent cancellation of the M4 relief also means the region needs to develop complementary schemes, including for Newport and the Eastern Valleys, to help deliver a major shift to public transport. I set out some suggestions for a public transport concept for the M4 corridor[xxii] in a recent blog.
We also need to get our heads around the funding; the capex for all of the above is probably in the range £0.5Bn ~ £1Bn and will be associated with further revenue costs to provide necessary subsidy. I am persuaded we need a road user charge. This can be phased in, but we have to start apportioning the full environment and external costs of personal car use if we are to develop alternatives with sufficient scale and capacity to encourage a major modal shift. There are also potential development related and other funding sources we need to explore. We do need a conversation on this matter and acknowledge the need to make tough choices if any of these proposals are to be implemented.
These proposals now embraced by Cardiff Council, are a natural extension to the next phase of Metro to be delivered by 2023/4 and should be part of a wider regional Metro Development programme out to 2030 and beyond. This last point is key; as I have set out before, there is also potential to develop equally ambitious schemes in/around Newport and across the valleys that merit further development.
We can do this…! The Metro was heresy eight years ago ( I know I was there[xxiii]), they all told me it would never happen – and now it is!
[xvi] Welsh Government, 2014
[xvii] Prof Barry, 2018, Evidence to the Welsh Assembly Economy, Infrastructure and Skills Committee http://senedd.assembly.wales/documents/s81089/3.%20Professor%20Mark%20Barry.pdf
[xxi] Mark Barry, 2018, Welsh Government, “The Case for Investment” https://gov.wales/sites/default/files/publications/2018-12/the-rail-network-in-wales-case-for-investment.pdf
Barry, 2011, IWA/Cardiff Business Partnership, “A Metro for Wales Capital City
10 thoughts on “A Cardiff Crossrail…”
One of the reasons that the NorthWest corridor is not yet built is because of the uncertainty and challenges associated with extending the line south to Cardiff Bay and/or along the relief lines to Cardiff Parkway. So why not just focus on the immediate need – a Phase 1 from Plasdwr to Cardiff Central with 2 tph. I recognise the capacity limitations at Cardiff West Junction, but these could be mitigated by initially terminating this service at a reopened ‘Platform 5’, avoiding the need to cross the Barry/Penarth lines.
A Phase 2 would include a flyover at Cardiff West to allow the Plasdwr line to cross these lines and operate at new platforms to the south of the existing Central Station – which would enable future tram operation to Cardiff Bay and alternative routes east.
Phase 3 would then extend the line west to Llantrisant area, Phase 4 to Cardiff Bay and Phase 5 to Cardiff Parkway.
But if we try and achieve a complete solution from Day 1 we may end up with nothing!
There’s a better more pragmatic first step in hand….but yes you are right you can’t do it all in one go!
Also….just FYI. NW Corridor is not really constrained by the development of Crossrail across the bay and to Parkway….it is the city line (stuck on 2tph when it needs 4tph at least) and the fact there really isn’t enough demand on the corridor out to the NW/RCT until many more houses are built!! …and when it is, it will add further pathway demands on the city line pushing it up to maybe 8tph! So, whilst Crossrail (in whatever final form…and that is still tbc) is the ultimate ambition the core network between Radyr via the City line and the connection to the bay line needs to be “fixed” first to provide the foundation (so capacity for more pathways) for whatever follows. It was always going to be incremental ….I think I even suggested that in the article.
A successful metro will deliver a hop on hop off solution and not park and ride or bus and tram. Where are the lines connecting the business parks and centres of learning at Cardiff Gate,St Mellons, Cardiff Metropolitan University Hubs at Llandaff and Cyncoed ? Also the conurbations along the Eastern bypass (Pentwyn, Llanederyn, Pontprnnau, Cyncoed and estates south of A48 all appear to have been forgotten. Current proposal still leaves vast swaths of Cardiff without access to a tram/train and key Hubs remote and disconnected. Commuters will not leave their cars in significant numbers to get on a bus no matter how they’re polished. The improvements to rolling stock is long overdue as is more stations on existing lines but this still doesn’t feel like a metro.
The Crossrail concept is only part of the picture (not sure why you would try and present it as the totality of proposals for the city) and is focused on making much better use of existing rail infrastructure. This scheme has a good strategic case given the large parts of of the city it will serve as well as the bus integration opportunities. Extensive new rail (HR or LR) is very capital intensive so much of Cardiff will need more bus segregation and BRT (see the White Paper and my article on that) ; evidence indicates that where buses are reliable, regular and frequent people will use them. That’s why we need more bus lanes (and proper BRT in places) as well as measures to allocate more of the total costs of car use to car drivers…. I use a bus more often than the train!
Agree that improvements to existing infrastructure is needed and will support growth on existing commuter routes. There’s a question as to how transport hubs at Queen Street & Central will cope with increased passenger numbers as both stations already struggle at peak times.
I too use Cardiff Bus when working from our satellite office on the St.Mellons Business Park. This journey door to door via 28a & 45b takes~1hr 15 minutes as opposed to 10-20 minutes by car. My point is most aren’t as committed as I am & will not tolerate this (nor is it reasonable to expect them to) and whilst further improvements can be made with bus lanes this will be limited given the bus routes meander through estates.
This still feels like long overdue improvements to existing infrastructure and somewhat short of a Metro, as seen in Manchester.
Agree that investment on existing infrastructure is needed and long overdue to support growth on current commuter routes. There’s a question as to whether stations at Queen Street and Central have the capacity to handle more trains and more passengers as these stations already struggle with current passengers and the current volume of trains.
I too use the bus (Cardiff bus) when working from our satellite office in St. Mellons Business Park. The trip from Llanishen takes ~1hr 15 minutes via 28a & 45b as opposed to 10-20 minutes by car. Most commuters will not put up with this and nor should they be expected to, so there needs to be a realistic alternative to the car to get significant numbers to opt for public transport. Bus lanes will not make much of a dent to journey time as the bus routes meander through estates with roads not sufficiently wide enough to accommodate a bus lane.
Maybe the project simply needs to be rebranded as TFW Infrastructure Investment. Granted not as punchy as Metro but this is a far cry from Metrolink in Manchester & this will more accurately describe the project & manage expectations, unless of course there’s an appetite to be expansive and connect those communities and Employment hubs that are currently disconnected from a tram/light rail.
I agree re demand via Central and QS stations…I am pursuing this issue!
Disagree with some of this, bus lanes and prioritisation (leading to full BRT) can make a big difference on service reliability. opex and demand…plenty of evidence to support that.
You do know this phase of the Metro is more focused on the CVL – 12 tram-trains will operate south of Pontypridd to Cardiff with a ~20/22 min journey time. That’s almost a London Underground service!
I am very focused on trying to sort Cardiff out – specifically the City and Coryton Lines and how they all work together with the Bay Line, Central etc (within the emerging Crossrail concept)
Manchester Metro link started (as we are here) with the conversion of two old HR lines to Bury and Altrincham…..what is proposed in the next phase in South Wales is actually more ambitious than that! Manchester has has 30 years to expand and still does not (nor will it) cover all the Gtr Manchester area
Is there an update re capacity and platforms at Queen Street and Central to accommodate the extra trains that the metro will deliver?