No rail devolution? No Swansea Bay Metro!

Without fundamental constitutional reform, a Swansea Bay Metro will likely never happen.

A version of this blog appeared in the business section of Business News Wales / Western Mail on January 5th 2024.

I want here to summarise its initial concept development, more recent scheme and business case development and the very real obstacles to further progress, and how we might overcome them.

Background…

I first shared some of my ideas of a “Swansea Metro” back in 2017; in the following two years I revisited and updated the concept in a series of blogs and via the formal work I led for Welsh Government via the “The Rail Network in Wales – The Case for Investment[i]”.  These are some of those articles and other reports I have either written or contributed to, which contain much of the background to the current Swansea Bay Metro project:

July 2017 Electrification to Swansea….or not? – M Barry[ii]

August 2017 A Swansea Bay Metro… – M Barry[iii]

September 2017 Swansea to Cardiff in 30 mins & Swansea Bay Metro – M Barry[iv]

December 2018 Swansea Bay Metro (Dec 2018)…. – M Barry[v]

December 2018 Wales’s Rail Network – The Case for Investment – M Barry[vi]

February 2019, A Swansea Bay Parkway… …but where and why? – M Barry[vii]

April 2019, Swansea Bay Metro & City Deal – M Barry[viii]

October 2021, Welsh Government/TfW[ix] Swansea Bay & West Wales Metro WelTAG stage 2

February 2022 Wales’s Metros – Update Feb 2022 – M Barry[x]

January 2023 Metro Hopes for 2023… – M Barry[xi]

My initial ideas were influenced by some of the earlier concepts originating in the region, later by the 2017/18 formal transport planning work (with Arup and later Capita, as well as Jim Steer and Cogitamus) and discussions with local and regional stakeholders and politicians. The following two illustrations show how my thinking changed between 2017 and 2019. In particular you will see that whilst I still like the idea of a new coastal alignment for the SWML into Swansea, there are in reality better value and more affordable schemes along the entire Cardiff-Swansea corridor that can reduce journey times and improve capacity.

Figure 1 2017 Mark Barry Swansea Metro Concept & new SWML alignment

Figure 2 2019 Mark Barry Swansea Metro Concept

Some people might also remember the manufactured outrage and petition in Neath back in 2018 from those who thought I wanted to close Neath station! Spoiler alert – I didn’t.  Despite the controversy I had some very positive meetings with the likes Matt Warren and Paul Harwood at the Swansea Tech Hub, with officials at Swansea Council, the emerging Swansea Bay City Region team and local politicians like Swansea Council Leader Rob Stewart, Christina Rees MP, Geraint Davies MP, Jeremy Miles MS and Tonia Antoniazzi MP. I also presented on the Swansea Metro at an event at Llanelly House organised by MS Lee Waters in December 2017. There was and still is, clearly an interest and support for something better in the area re: strategic regional public transport.

Figure 3 Llanelly House Swansea Metro Presentation December 2017

Despite the widespread support, my musings, articles and blogs and the more recent detailed work of TfW, WG and the region, there are very real challenges, especially in respect of affordability, in making further progress.

The current plans (2023)…

Since I set out my initial ideas, the concept and those nascent ideas have been subject to much greater scrutiny, analysis and refinement as a result of TfWs WelTAG development work via the Swansea Bay and West Wales Metro Programme (ably led by Ben George) – or perhaps better described as a Regional Transport Programme.  That more detailed work in the period from 2020 through into 2023 has precipitated the core urban rail proposals of the wider programme. These proposals look something like that illustrated in Figure 4. The key first phases of this larger vision, are new local “metro” rail services:

• Pontarddulais to Swansea via Neath using the Swansea District Line (SDL) and new curve to connect to the SWML;  new stations at Pontlliw/Penllergaer, Felindre, Morriston, Llandarcy, Winch Wen and Landore to augment the existing stations at Swansea High Street, Neath, Llansamlet and Pontarddulais
• Pembrey & Burry Port to Swansea with a new station at Cockett to augment those at Swansea High Street, Gowerton and Llanelli.

Today, my guestimate is that this initial programme has a total price tag of probably  £300-400M (if we add electrification)  but with  a positive BCR (as found by the WelTAG work). It’s also worth noting this scheme will serve an urban agglomeration across Llanelli, Swansea and Neath/Port Talbot, with a population of  over 380k[xii] people (certainly sufficient to support this kind of programme). Given that demographic reality I would prefer we were looking to deliver at least 4tph at the priority core metro stations – but if not in a first phase, that can follow later.

More importantly, this initial package can form the essential backbone of an urban public transport system integrated (post bus reform) with local and express bus services Figure 5  (and including integrated ticketing and fares) and a Hydrogen bus pilot, all of which will provide more options to move around the region in something other than a car.  The core network also provides the foundation for future metro rail expansion using tram-train technology. More strategically, the route through north Swansea serves areas set out for future development, so presents more opportunities to enable Transit Oriented Development (TOD). I also think this network necessitates more TOD in/around the region’s main stations at Swansea High Street, Neath and Llanelli. It is also relevant to point out this scheme does not need miles of new rail infrastructure. It’s about making much better use of a currently underutilised asset, The Swansea District Line (SDL). Making better use of existing transport infrastructure is a stated objective of the Wales Transport Strategy – Llwybr Newydd.

This core urban metro network could be augmented by more local services from Swansea and Carmarthen to West Wales, reduced journey times from Cardiff to, and a parkway at Carmarthen (no not Felindre)  and additional SWML services form Cardiff, London and Bristol Temple Meads to Swansea, Carmarthen and West Wales (as developed via TfW’s SWML Programme[xiii] and endorsed in the Western Gateway 2050 Rail Vision[xiv]).  In aggregate this will see rail service frequency increases and more capacity  at all stations in the urban area  Figure 6 .

Figure 4 Based on 2021/3 TfW/WG WelTAG scheme development of Swansea Metro (illustration)

Figure 5 Potential Swansea Bay Urban Area Metro- priority rail & bus schemes (from TfW-illustration only)

Figure 6 Potential rail service frequency improvements proposed (illustration only)

It’s a great scheme. It will provide much more public transport capacity helping to deliver our mode shift targets and enable more overt TOD across the region (to be re-enforced via Local Development Plans and a regional Strategic Development Plan)

It probably won’t happen…

Sadly, I am not very confident any of this can actually be delivered in the current climate and under the current constitutional arrangements in the UK – especially as regards rail.  I see four major challenges:

• Rail powers and funding are non-devolved and so WG alone do not have the capital funds/resources able to deliver this scheme; there are similar challenges in finding the revenue resource necessary to run the additional services implied
• Transport is not part of the Swansea Bay City Deal and so this scheme has a lower profile at Westminster than would otherwise be the case (cf CCR) – which in advance of the full devolution of rail powers/funding to WG is an impediment
• In addition, the current impact of inflation on major infrastructure and the perilous state of government finances suggest that this really is not going to happen any time soon – if at all.
• Who is/are acting as the local champion/s of this project (political, business groups, civic society, academia, etc) working every day to make it happen ….?

Despite these substantive obstacles, I think this scheme needs to happen. Especially when we add the context of some of the larger existential challenges we face. Copying from another recent blog, for me these are:

• Whether we like it or not, we are going to navigate our way through the Climate Emergency[xv], and are going to need a lot more public transport. By the mid-2030s and consistent with the Welsh Government NZW[xvi] targets, we need to radically increase PT mode share…

• Policy 32 from NZW– Increase trip mode share of public transport from a current estimated proportion of 5% to 7% by 2030 (a 40% increase) and 13% by 2040 (doubling again)  – these are average figures for Wales as a whole, so the shift required will be higher in urban areas like Swansea Bay, and lower in rural; NZW infers a reduction in car mode share from 68% to 60%  by 2030 and down to 52% by 2040 and nearly three times as much PT use by 2040 vs today

• As I have written before, Levelling Up requires real financial commitment at scale to address the generational issues and the legacy associated with the loss of a major industries like coal, tin and copper. However, the UK has a problem in that London has and continues to receive far more capital investment per capita  (especially for essential economic infrastructure like transport) than anywhere else in the UK[xvii]. And to note the Welsh figures below are, I believe, overstated as they include an allocation for HS2(!) and Welsh Government capital spend in non-devolved areas like rail. And it is investment in essential  economic capital infrastructure that is relevant – not the higher per capita spend on things like Health, etc (which in Wales have a higher per capita need because of an older, sicker population than the UK average – and more incoming retirees)

Figure 7 HMT 2022 Capital spend per capita across nations/regions

• We could replicate the Swansea case for provision of capital funds for regional rail/metro schemes in places like Bristol, Leeds, Southampton, Brighton, Leicester, Coventry, Hull, Bournemouth, Stoke, etc. These are all large cities/urban areas/agglomerations of over 300k people whose equivalents in Europe already have substantive local metro/transit systems. There has clearly been a failing at Westminster in this regard going back decades!

• More tactically the costs and deliverability challenges of the Swansea Metro can be reduced if the SWML is electrified from Cardiff to Swansea. The earlier decision to cut the electrification to Swansea has to be reversed.

Given these realities, it seems to me there is  both an opportunity and obligation to invest in strategic public transport capacity to support decarbonisation and economic development – not just by Welsh Government, but by UK Government as well. It also presents an opportunity to make real that Levelling Up rhetoric and support economic development  in the region.

So how might we make it happen…

Now, in 2024, I am pretty clear that whilst development work has  precipitated an excellent scheme for the region, I am also clear that it just won’t happen unless and until WG has fully devolved powers over rail and full barnettisation of all English rail spend (as is the case in Scotland)  – so all English NR spend, not just HS2 (I have been making this case since 2011 as set out in my evidence[xviii] to the Westminster Transport Committee’s review of High Speed Rail for the Cardiff Business Partnership! I was a lone voice on this issue at that time).  The new Wales Rail Board may well endorse this programme – however it does not have any access to the capital funding required to deliver it. I know this is an issue that is vexing the Burns Delivery Unit chaired by Simon Gibson in respect of the essential upgrades required on the SWML in SE Wales.

Without  a change in the constitutional landscape re: rail in Wales Vs UK, then schemes like the Swansea Metro will never happen. The degree of UK underfunding of Welsh rail infrastructure over the last 30 years runs into the £Bns[xix] and is a scandal that will persist without constitutional change.  The  £1Bn announcement by UK Government for NWML OLE[xx] at some unspecified time in the future, without any details, does not materially change that analysis. To repeat, we need to see all rail powers and funding (and full Barnet treatment of English rail expenditure thereof) vested with Welsh Government.

I also think that the regions of England need a more formulaic distribution of English capital funds for major rail investment.  Too many major decisions related to essential economic infrastructure in the UK are made by a handful of politicians, advisors and bureaucrats in/around Westminster and Whitehall.  This can never work for all places on this island – especially in Wales.

More strategically from a UK perspective we need to borrow to invest in essential economic infrastructure,  to deliver both our climate change obligations and also to support more equitable economic development across the UK. The UK spent between £300~400Bn during covid[xxi]. Given the scale of the Climate Emergency I suggest UK needs to borrow (like war bonds) and invest at least £500bn over 20~30 years to support investment in energy and public transport infrastructure. With Wales getting its fair share of that long term investment and with more devolved powers in Cardiff Bay (via a more appropriate confederal relationship with England)  then we can bring forward the Swansea Metro alongside the electrification and upgrade of the SWML (including new Burns stations and additional services to Bristol Temple Meads), as well as other scheme in Wales like NWML upgrade/electrification, Marches Line speed/capacity upgrade, Cardiff Crossrail/Circle[xxii], more CCR Metro[xxiii], and rail innovation in the west.  We can and should also work also with UK/English Government on projects like the Severn Barrage and an upgrade of our energy grids.

As I have written on more than one occasion[xxiv] it is also time to properly account for negative externalities of excessive car use (including carbon emissions, poor air quality, RTAs, low density sprawl, etc ) and reduce the huge public subsidy car use and ownership receive. In that more honest context, road pricing is an inevitability and known to be the most effective means of reducing congestion and so ensuring the economic value of our road network can be realised.

So, delivery of the Swansea Metro is a political challenge as well as a constitutional economic and climate change one.

I am looking at you Keir Starmer, Rachel Reeves and Louise Haigh. I am sure Swansea Council Leader, Rob Stewart is on the case as well (as demonstrated by his contributions at a recent Swansea Council meeting); he would also, I suspect, find common cause with the likes of Andy Burnham, Steve Rotheram and Tracy Brabin re: a more equitable distribution of UK Government funds for investment in essential economic infrastructure!

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[i]          Welsh Government, 2018 The Rail Network in Wales (gov.wales)

[ii]         Mark Barry, 2017 Electrification to Swansea….or not?

[iii]         Mark Barry, 2017A Swansea Bay Metro…

[iv]         Mark Barry, 2017 Swansea to Cardiff in 30 minutes & a Swansea Bay Metro

[v]          Mark Barry, 2018 Swansea Bay Metro (Dec 2018)….

[vi]         Mark Barry, 2018.Wales’ Rail Network – The Case for Investment

[vii]        Mark Barry, 2019, A Swansea Bay Parkway… …but where and why?

[viii]        Mark Barry, 2019,  Swansea Bay Metro & City Deal

[ix]         Welsh Government, Oct 2021, Swansea Bay/West Wales Metro WelTAG stg 2:final report

[x]          Mark Barry, 2022, Wales’s Metros – Update Feb 2022

[xi]         Mark Barry, 2023, Metro Hopes for 2023…

[xii]        Agglomerations (UK: Population Statistics, Charts & Map (citypopulation.de)

[xiii]        TfW SWML Programme, South Wales Mainline | Transport for Wales (tfw.wales)

[xiv]        Western Gateway, 2050 Rail Vision, Western Gateway Rail_Vision_2050

[xv]        Mark Barry, 2022: Submission to Senedd Climate Change Committee

[xvi]        Welsh Government, 2021, “Net Zero Wales” Net Zero Wales | GOV.WALES;  

[xvii]       HMT, 2019 CRA_2019_-_main_text.pdf (publishing.service.gov.uk);
Country and regional analysis: 2022 – GOV.UK (www.gov.uk)

[xviii]       Cardiff Business Partnership Evidence to Transcom, 2011 House of Commons – Transport Committee – Written Evidence (parliament.uk)

[xix]        Mark Barry, 2022, 200 to 1: English Rail Investment V Wales Rail Investment !

[xx]        Mark Barry, 2023, The butchering of HS2…and Wales

[xxi]        House of Commons Library, Sep 2023, Public spending during the Covid-19 pandemic-House of Commons Library

[xxii]       Mark Barry, 2019, A Cardiff Crossrail…

[xxiii]       M Barry/CCR, 2021, Passenger Rail vision CCR -passenger-rail-vision-final.pdf

[xxiv]       Mark Barry, 2022, Cars, Congestion, Health and Road Pricing…