On February 13th, 2024, Sarah Atherton MP published a piece in the Wrexham Leader criticising a number of Welsh Government decisions and/or implications thereof of as regards transport.
‘Plan for increased use of public transport is fundamentally flawed’ | The Leader (leaderlive.co.uk)
Whilst I have no problem with an honest and reasoned critique, most of the points raised were either inaccurate, misrepresentative or deliberately misleading. So, I felt I had to quickly respond to each of the points raised (in bold below) to help correct misunderstanding and/or misrepresentation. In doing so, I am keeping it brief and including links to other papers/articles with further data/evidence. I have done this quickly so will refine in responses to comments/challenge.
The Welsh Government’s 20 mph blanket policy has caused Arriva to reconfigure timetables and consider scrapping certain bus routes, leaving remote villages and regular passengers stranded.
I accept there may be some local issues and challenges associated with the 20mph roll out which I am sure will be worked through by every local authority. However, these are in the margins and perhaps more of an issue in rural areas (where there are fewer 20mph limits anyway). In most cases, bus operations are more impacted by having to stop (at bus stops and road junctions!- on average every 200-300M in urban area) and being impacted by traffic and congestion; not by being unable to go a few mph faster for perhaps one or two hundred meters between stops! If we really want to help buses and their operational efficiency and attractiveness to passengers, we need more bus lanes and bus prioritisation especially in urban areas. However, in some small number of cases I suspect some 20mph limits will be revised up to 30mph.
More strategically all our bus networks need an overhaul to address the fragmentation and lack of integration with rail that resulted from the UK Government’s deregulation of the bus industry in the 1980s. Welsh Government’s planned Bus Reform legislation will provide the basis to begin to address this fundamental issue.
Read this on buses: Cardiff bus station, bus networks and integration… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog), this more generally on Transport Planning may help: Wales, Transport Planning & Choices… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog) and this on bus fares or not? Free bus fares….or not? – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog). For a taste of the European experience of PT: To Rome and back by train… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
Due to 20mph, taxis have had to increase fares and now take 2 less rides a shift.
The stark fact some people are failing to acknowledge, is that 20mph limits will save lives and reduce the cost burden on other public services, especially A&E, through fewer and less serious Road Traffic Accident (RTAs). So, whilst I accept, that for some people in some circumstances there will be some minor disbenefits, I think this is a small price to pay. Remember, in the UK 1,700 people on average are killed in RTAs each year (so an average of 5 a day!) – many are pedestrians and cyclists in urban areas. How much is life worth I wonder?
I’d also add that 20mph, aside from saving lives, is helping the most vulnerable on our roads. So, the 500,000 children in Wales who need protection on their entire route from school to home, the 300,000 households with no access to a car and the 600,000 people with concessionary travel passes. Not everyone has a car or if they do, may not travel in a car for every trip.
Whilst Welsh Labour-run Transport for Wales (TfW) continues to run a poor service, they are increasing ticket prices by a staggering 4.9%.
That figure is the same as the UK Gov raised prices in England. Given funding challenges this is probably the best WG could do. I am not sure why you even raised this point?
With the ludicrous 20mph speed limit, which I have recently called to be repealed, and hiking train ticket prices up, Labour’s war on motorists knows no bounds. It begs the question, what’s next for Wrexham – ULEZ and toll roads?
Sarah would no doubt have been opposed to seat belts, belisha beacons and zebra crossings which were all opposed by a vocal minority when they were introduced. What about the war on pedestrians, cyclists, our urban realm, air quality, the climate, our high streets, etc?
Even after the Welsh Government used £125 million to bail out TfW, they still sit firmly in bottom place for UK customer satisfaction, and we see passengers continually complain about deteriorating and unreliable services. Answers such as ‘trains cancelled last minute’ and ‘crowded and unsafe carriages’ were highlighted in my transport survey.
Yes, there are some current challenges. But TfW are in middle of a major transformation of rail services and infrastructure (south Wales metro ) and in the middle of the £800M replacement of nearly the entire rail fleet used for franchise. This is an attempt to reverse in effect 30+ years of deprecation of the rail network and services in Wales relative to the rest of the UK. It’s not like going into the corner shop to buy a bag of sherbet.
Whilst TfW can be rightly challenged on some decision and actions (eg Metro Moans for 2023… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog), both it and Welsh Government ought to be applauded for undertaking the current major upgrade of rail services. Bizarrely, whilst WG are investing to improve the passenger experience in Wales for the long term, UK Government are restricting NR funding for Operations Maintenace and Renewals in Wales which will make services less reliable – something NR themselves have said.
The stark truth, which a sober and considered analysis confirms, is that the rail industry is complex, and Wales has been underfunded by at least £3Bn for rail enhancements since 2000 and will lose another £3Bn by 2040 without change. I suggest sitting down for an hour with a bottle of wine to read this article which sets out the failings of the UK Rail industry eco-system vis a vis Wales>> The UK rail industry, Wales & HS2 – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog). I am more than happy to be corrected on any of this analysis.
These further articles expose the issue as well:
No rail devolution? No Swansea Bay Metro! – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
The butchering of HS2, Wales and the NWML… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
Wales, Metro, TOD & Devolution… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
The Welsh Government’s plan for increased use of public transport services is fundamentally flawed: raising prices whilst running a poor service only forces people to rely more on their cars.
This is ill informed. The Climate Change Committee advice to governments is very clear re the need to decarbonise transport and to reduce car dependency. This requires much more public transport capacity. Whilst WG, with one hand tied behind its back, are trying, the UK Government are stymieing WG progress whilst supporting more road building of their own – eg a tunnel under Stonehenge. As I have stated elsewhere with evidence, we hugely subsidise car use given we fail to properly quantify and apportion its very large negative externalities.
My evidence to the Senedd Climate Change Committee is probably worth a look: Mark Barry, May 2022: Submission to Senedd Climate Change Committee – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog). As is this: Cars, Congestion, Health and Road Pricing… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
Meanwhile, the Welsh Government continues to argue that they do not receive enough money from the UK Government to upgrade transport infrastructure. However, the key here is that the Welsh Labour Government has the funding available and can choose when and how to spend this money. The Welsh Government receives a significant funding settlement from the UK Government, where Wales receives £1.20 to spend on public services for every £1 spent in England.
This is both misleading and ill-informed. The current devolution settlement means that Welsh Government has powers mainly over “spending” departments like Health (well over half WG budget) which have a higher per capita need than the UK average (on average an older, sicker population and more incoming retirees). Funding for Welsh Government is directly linked to what UK Government spends on such departments- and for the last ten year this has been cut in real terms. So WG has less to spend even though it has a greater need given the demographics. WG has no major powers over fiscal matters or more importantly over major economic infrastructure like energy and rail; a situation made more challenging in that when WG does spend on rail it has to in effect take that money from departments that do get a devolved settlement. If we want to improve the economy then WG needs those major levers and powers – just pointing at its spending record on Health is entirely disingenuous.
More relevant on a UK basis, is that capital funding per capita, which is essential to support economic development, has been and is far higher in London and SE England than anywhere else in the UK. HMT figures also overstate WG capital funding given WG has to spend devolved monies in non-devolved areas and HMT allocate some capital for HS2 to Wales! That is a constitutional dysfunction.
Read these again: The UK rail industry, Wales & HS2 – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog) and Wales, Metro, TOD & Devolution… – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
This argument, based on nothing more than deflection and their own mismanagement of taxpayer’s money on nonsensical transport policies, is nothing new. Over the years, the Welsh Government has continued to prioritise spending hard-earned taxpayer’s money in irresponsible ways; £52 million for Cardiff airport in 2013 and most recently, £40million on the unwanted 20mph blanket policy. The one thing that both of these policies have in common is that the benefits do not outweigh cost, in fact it all goes downhill. The 20mph policy is projected to cost the Welsh economy £4.5billion and Cardiff airport is a bottomless pit for taxpayers’ money, now being estimated worth £15million after writing off a series of debts.
It’s not a blanket (it’s not, so stop saying it, it’s getting embarrassing); and there are an increasing number of places in England with 20mph zones. It’s happening the world over as it saves money and lives.
The £4.5Bn Impact of 20mph is frankly nonsense and shows up the failings of HMT transport appraisal when you can aggregate lots of very small inconsequential changes over a long period to make a nig number. We need to rethink how we use “Value of Time” in transport appraisal: Quantum Physics, Transport Planning & Value of Time (VoT)! – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog)
A more honest appraisal of Cardiff Airport please. WG bought the airport form Abertis in 2013 (yes one can argue over the price) who had focussed their investment on other airports in their portfolio – passenger numbers at Cardiff Airport were falling under Abertis stewardship. WG interventions turned that decline around and prior to Covid the airport had started to grow numbers again which were much higher than when Abertis fled. The stark choice today is providing a small subsidy or close it, and noting most major airports around the world are state owned.. Cardiff Airport…stick or twist? – Mark Barry (swalesmetroprof.blog). If you want to close Cardiff Airport – say so. However, that will result in the loss of hundreds of jobs – both directly and in the local supply chain. That is the debate we should be having, not pretending there is some utopian private sector solution that will transform the prospects of what will always be a small airport with a small catchment population.
The argument that the Welsh Government’s transport agenda is falling short because of the UK Government short-changing them is frankly untrue.
Wrong – As I have presented to Westminster and Senedd Committees over the last 15 years, Wales has and continues to be shortchanged re rail investment vs what is happening elsewhere in the UK. I have the data, evidence…where is the data supporting the counter narrative?
In summary government and their agencies (so WG and TfW – as well as DfT, UK Gov) need to be held to account. But such challenges have to be based on an honest critique using real data. Most of what I see is noise and ideologically manufactured outrage and disinformation. There must be some sort of election coming up?!
Mark Barry 