Metro and other hopes for 2025…

I want to start the year with a quick bullet point list of my “hopes” and expectations (some no doubt naïve) for 2025….and those who follow me will spot some of the repetition! Some may even say, why does he go on so much (Someone has to!). Anyway, here we go…

• Most important of all, that we begin to move beyond GDP – it’s a broken metric – and the concept of perpetual growth. All the hopes below really ought to be subservient to the reality that our economic metrics (GDP, GVA, productivity, etc) are all flawed given we fail to properly calculate and apportion many of the negative externalities associated with our activities – esp. environmental degradation and carbon emissions.
  
  We need an economy in balance with nature, not one that continues to exploit it as if it was an infinite and free resource. It seems to me that the law of supply and demand and the consequent “efficient use of resources” to maximise profits is not, but should be constrained by the environmental costs of using those resources.
  
  If we can’t fix this, so that consumer prices more honestly reflect the full costs of production, including the externalities, and so allow consumers to make better choices, then there is little hope for the world! See What use is GDP on a planet with no trees or bees?

• In that context, we need major fiscal reform that:
  
  • #1 levies more tax on the activities and transactions associated with the largest and most damaging externalities (esp those associated with large “tax avoiding” international corporates that extract local value onto distant balance sheets) and,
    
  • #2 reduces the tax burden on business and activities thereof that support local economies and entrepreneurship and so retain value more locally. See my 2021 blog, The Environment, Tax and Wales
    

• The allocation to drivers of at least some of the wider costs of car use to society. When we consider all the negative externalities, it is clear that car use is subsidised. I am not anti-car, I am anti so much car, and so little choice – especially in urban areas where most car trips are less than 2-3Km. Some fiscal disincentive is needed, which is in fact the most effective means of reducing congestion (of course in combination with some of the public transport measures set out below). See the chapter on cars and section on the principles that should underpin road pricing in “How to build a Metro”

Then from a metro and public transport perspective….

• To see tram-trains in operation on the Cardiff Capital Region (South Wales) Metro. I do expect these to be running on the Core Valley lines (CVL) by Autumn 2025 and so bring early benefits to passengers re: level boarding, ambience, reliability, etc. However, it may be early 2026 before we see the full Metro timetable with increased frequency and shorter journey times in place. When this is all delivered, Welsh Government and Transport for Wales (TfW) will need a big pat on the back. See Metro has been a collective effort – How to build a Metro… (PS I also want to see work start on Crwys Rd station!)
  
  In fact, the valleys will also benefit from the completion of the £1Bn Heads of the Valleys Road and TfWs development of a fibre networks across the CVL. With a Senedd election coming up in 2026, Welsh Government can really start to talk up its generational investment in economic infrastructure in the valleys north of Cardiff.

• Committed funding for Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2. As many will know I have been critical of the omission of Metro services (ie minimum 4tph “Turn up and go”) in much of Cardiff. So, I hope we can see the funding and commitment to address this serious omission in the current programme as part of Crossrail Phase 2.
  
  A £150-200M further investment to augment the CVL Metro (which is mainly focussed on the valleys north of Cardiff) and Crossrail Phase 1a (Central to the bay line) will deliver major transport user benefits by enabling 4tph on both the City and Coryton lines, direct services from the City Line (and perhaps Penarth as well) via Central to the bay, as well as more stations in Cardiff; perhaps more importantly it will provide the core CVL network more capacity, reliability, redundancy and recoverability benefits. See Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales and Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2

• UK Government commitment to a major upgrade of the South Wales Mainline (SWML) In addition to the long overdue relief line upgrade, this has to include the new “Burns” stations, additional Cardiff-Bristol Temple Meads services and electrification to Swansea. Most of these interventions have been set out previously over decades via SEWTA Rail Strategies, my 2013 Metro Impact Study, the Lord Burns led South East Wales Transport Commission (SEWTC), the Union Connectivity Review (UCR), the Cardiff Capital Region Rail Passenger Vision, TfW’s SWML programme and recently via the Western Gateway 2050 Rail vision. This strategic UK investment is long overdue and needs UK Government to lead on funding. See Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales and Constitutional changes needed to enable PT across the UKs city regions

• UK Government commit to more rail enhancement funding in Wales. I am not, sadly, expecting to see rail powers fully devolved to Welsh Government (WG), with a corresponding adjustment to the block grant and some further funding to reflect the relatively poor state of the Welsh Rail asset vs the rest of the UK network (All this should l have happened back in 2005!). I addressed this in a recent Hiraeth podcast
  
  However, I do expect to see some movement re: UK rail enhancement investment in Wales (esp. given likely £80Bn lined up in England to 2040). I hope for a ring-fenced joint UK Government/Welsh Government rail enhancement pipeline outside of the current dysfunctional rail industry “Rail Network Enhancement Pipeline” (RNEP). This needs to be of the order of £200M pa out to 2040 to deliver the £2.5~£3Bn rail enhancements developed by WG/TfW over the last 6 years. See The rail industry, Wales & HS2 – and the Barnett Formula from “How to build a Metro” and my 2021 blog on the potential for a Welsh rail enhancement fund

• Progress on Cardiff Parkway and an early Welsh Government decision to remove the planning uncertainty. All parties can then move onto the more challenging question of how the station is funded and what sort of station is needed. As I have oft said we don’t have a public transport connected out of town business park in South East Wales. This is a unique site and a unique opportunity. See Cardiff Parkway…

• That people stop going on about 20 mph (and the M4 Relief Road) – it clearly works, saving lives and money. For those people continually “banging on” about this; please move on, the data is pretty unequivocal. There are so many other more important issues to engage with.
  
  In the vein can we all stop with the WG is not building roads. In 2025 we should see the completion of Welsh Government’s biggest transport project (no its not the Metro); the completion of the final sections of the Heads of the Valleys (HoV) road which on their own probably costs~£1Bn. However, we all need to move on from the M4 Relief Road debate. It’s not happening and is not needed; that corridor is in desperate need of high-quality high-capacity public transport alternatives as set out above vis a vis the SWML upgrade. See here for some context for 20mph (and example data sets), There must be an election coming up… for some examples of political disinformation and here for a summary of induced demand. This recent article by a Dave Edmondson is also good on induced demand.

• Rapid progress on Bus Reform legislation so that WG via TfW, the regions, local authorities, bus operators, etc can design and procure, via franchising, integrated bus networks. I also hope that the penny drops; we also need to support this programme with more bus revenue support and, especially in urban areas, measures to enable buses to operate more efficiently and reliably – esp. bus lanes and prioritisation. Eg Cardiff Council have a consulted on such Bus Priority Strategy – Keeping Cardiff Moving. See the section on buses here Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales

Then other stuff (politics, development, etc…)

• For the Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) to embrace Transit Oriented Development (TOD) and with WG engage in a major economic development and regeneration programme (especially much more new, publicly funded housing) to augment and maximise the investment in the Metro. Places like Pontypridd should be at the core of such a programme, augmented with a range of smaller tactical and/or infill interventions right across the Metro network – with a focus on housing and high street regeneration. This also means we have to incentivise a reduction in the amount of out-of-town car-based office and retail. See the section on TOD in “How to build a Metro”

• That the Reform Party stop just listing & pointing at problems, manufacturing outrage, generating division and offering ill thought-out undeliverable simple solutions to complex problems. Rather, I hope at least some Reform members begin to see that many of the problems they have legitimately raised are linked to the failings of Westminster and Whitehall and the overcentralised nature of the UK state (and not Europe, immigrants, Net Zero, cyclists, etc). I am sure there is at least a little common ground to be found. See this 2022 blog UK Government Cock Ups, Wales, Zen and The Art of Independence… and in 2021, What sort of Britain do we want?

• UK Constitutional Reform and much greater devolution. In that context that all political parties see the need to re-wire the UK state/constitution with more decisions, funding, accountability vested in the nations and the regions of England. If we take out London, the UK economy is one of the poorest in Europe; we can’t fix the UK economy by throwing more resources at London (it already receives more capital funding per capita than anywhere else). Ther UK’s major cities and city regions are under capitalised and need to be empowered to perform a greater economic role. See Why UK City Regions need Metros (like the South Wales Metro)

• In that context more people see that Welsh Devolution was hamstrung from the start. Powers and accountability have been bestowed to Welsh Government for mainly ”spending” departments like Health, Education, (which make up 75% of the WG budget – and which as regards Health has a higher per capita need than the UK average). The Welsh Government has no real powers over things that could really have an impact; so economic infrastructure like rail, big energy, crown estates, etc – and it has no major fiscal levers at its disposal. The whole set up of the UK needs a thorough overhaul. See Welsh Independence…no, not like North Korea (or even Brexit!)

• That this “rewiring” also, finally, includes the need for Proportional Representation (PR) at Westminster (and in Wales in local elections). The UK Labour party needs to get its head around this. It cannot be right or democratic that a Westminster Government can exercise absolute power with significantly less than 40% of the vote. This opens the door to a more dystopian future in 2029!

• In parallel can we sort out the House of Lords, I find it laughable and often hypocritical that some who criticise an increase in the number of Senedd members whilst the jamboree of further members to the House of Lords passes without comment (more so given the calibre and credibility of some of the more recent entrants in the last few years). The reality is that the former will improve WG scrutiny, the latter just makes the UK more of an international and undemocratic laughingstock.

• We stop conflating sex and gender; the conflation is getting in the way of an honest discussion of some sensitive and difficult issues, resulting in people often talking or shouting past each other. In so doing and in supporting equality for all, we risk damaging hard won sex-based rights and protections. We should all share the same rights and freedoms to do, to be, to act, and to say what we like, but only to the point at which in discharging those rights and freedoms we begin to restrict the rights and freedoms of another group or individual to do the same, or risk/cause potential harm to others. 

• We finally see some honesty re Brexit (including for those that “promoted it” and especially from Keir Starmer and the UK Labour Party!) It was always ludicrous to suggest that we could enhance the UK economy by making it harder to trade with our nearest and biggest market. “Make Brexit work” is just an embarrassment as is “If only they had implemented my brexit”. There were as many versions of brexit as there were people who voted for it as it was never defined!
  
  The enormous negative impact to the UK economy of that decision cannot remain the “elephant in the room”. If the UK Government (and all parties at Westminster) are serious about economic development, then as a bare minimum we need to embrace Single Market and Customs Union membership (or proxies thereof). In fact, something closer to the arrangement that Northern Ireland enjoys!

• Serious measures to address Climate Change and encourage more renewable energy production. Now yes, we need larger scale renewable capacity – but we also need to fund and encourage many more micro and local interventions. For example, local grids, domestic batteries, more heat pumps, house insulation, etc. There is no silver bullet here…just a need to make many changes on many fronts!
  
  In that context we need more effort to address the manufactured cynicism of experts and especially Climate Science. See A little knowledge is dangerous

• I’d also like to see the re-emergence of the Severn Barrage as a serious project for both flood protection and large scale predictable renewable energy generation. Coupled with further developments in large scale electricity storage capacity (esp. “big batteries”), then this scheme has the potential to provide a major base load for the grid and play a major role in the Welsh & UK economy. See Severnside – My 2012 Blog…

I think that’s enough to be going on with

Blwyddyn Newydd Dda 2025