Image Credit: GC Fotoestudio – stock.adobe.com
A quick positive blog – which I think we need in these current dystopian times; and PS, I am no energy or battery expert, so happy to take challenge/critique on this… (and another PS – actual storage duration is still a challenge)
Given what I have read and watched recently re: battery technology (via articles, etc produced by those more knowledgeable than me – including Tony Seba, who pretty much predicted what is about to happen (I hope!) re batteries/energy over 10 years ago; it seems we could be on the cusp of a domestic energy revolution, that will in 5~10 years, see domestic energy prices fall to very low levels based on a major transformation in generation, storage and distribution, more local capacity/storage and an enormous consequential reduction in the need for fossil fuel and nuclear for base load.
PS I don’t entirely agree with Tony Seba re: adoption of Autonomous Vehicles (AV) in already congested cities, he underplayed the geometry of cars v public transport and that AVs do nothing to address congestion or some of the wider negative externalities of car dependency!),
Back in the mid/late 1990s, when I was still living in London and working for the PA Consulting Group, I took a trip back to Cardiff and visited “Yes Television”. “Yes” was a pioneer of domestic “video on demand” and had operations in Hong Kong and Cardiff. They were pioneers whose ambitions were stymied by the limits of broadband capacity using copper cables (very little fibre at that time) and the costs thereof.
However, what they signposted was clear to me: the prospect of a major disruption in the delivery of digital content and the emergence of new digital on-line services, especially for news, music, film and television. I recall having several discussions at the time, trying to explain that once broadband speed, capacity and availability increased sufficiently and costs thereof dropped, then in future the only live TV we would consume for much of the time, would be news and live sport, and that everything else could be consumed “on demand” as and when people wanted – I think that has been borne out.
I think perhaps we are on the cusp of a disruption perhaps even more significant in our energy ecosystem, enabled by Sodium Batteries. The impact will be clear and obvious to the EV market (especially low temperature performance, safety through reduced fire risk, and range) which we can extrapolate from the trends we are already seeing through innovation in traditional Lithium battery technology. However, I suspect the most radical and transformative change will be in the domestic energy market and the role of the grid and volume base load energy suppliers.
One of the challenges the renewable industry faces is that in many cases, we still rely on fossil fuel or nuclear base load, for peak demand. One of the reasons for this are the limits on battery capacity and the relatively high cost of storing electricity – even with the innovation and improvement we have experienced in recent years. This links domestic electricity prices, no matter how it is produced, to the marginal cost of gas which is most often used to produce the “last unit” of energy needed. The current configuration of the grid also contributes to inefficiencies as the transmission of electricity over long distances results in loses of 5~8%.
Traditional Lithium-Ion technology is part of that constrained energy eco system – especially for local energy storage where current costs and performance are not commercially attractive for mass market adoption.
The Sodium battery changes that – especially cost. Sodium ion batteries make use of a very abundant and low-cost material, in effect salt (mostly sodium carbonate), negating the need to use much more expensive and in some cases limited and constrained supply of Lithium (which is also associated with worker exploitation). However, their take up has been slow because of its generally poorer performance, energy density and end cost when compared to the more mature Lithium market.
However, as many have been predicting for a few years, Sodium batteries are about to “go big”. The recent announcement from Chinese battery company CATL demonstrates re their applicability to the EV market. Their PR indicates their Naxtra battery…
“…maintains 90% usable capacity at temperatures as low as -40°C and features an energy density of 175Wh/kg, comparable to lithium iron phosphate batteries. It supports peak charging rates of 5C, offers a 500km range, and has a lifespan exceeding 10,000 cycles”.
….in effect offering batteries that outperform Lithium on performance, costs, safety…and very soon on energy density as well. They will eventually completely remove Lithium from the energy eco systems.
For me, the biggest change will be, not to an already developing EV market, but in domestic electricity supply and pricing thereof. Sodium batteries offer the prospect of affordable local energy storage enabling a useful local “base load” and significantly reducing dependency on the grid. In future, domestic solar panels (which have dropped enormously in cost in recent years) and wind (or community facilities) can make use of local storage reducing even further our dependence on expensive fossil fuel or nuclear “grid” base load and at the same time negate transmission loses. At the larger scale the use of larger sodium batteries for grid storage at much lower costs than today, and with better performance, will free renewable energy prices (which are much lower than fossil fuels and nuclear) from the marginal price of gas in periods of low renewable generation. This is very significant as it ushers in the prospect of very available and very low-cost low-carbon domestic energy.
PS There is caveat, for dependability of supply, we will likely need energy storage counted in weeks (to cover extreme weather like persistent low wind and/or prolonged limited sunlight); currently even Sodium batteries capabilities are still counted in terms of a few days storage (which is ideal for balancing and most weather conditions).
Like with broadband and data storage in the 1990s/early 2000s when the increasing capacity & reducing costs of such transformed the digital market, and accelerated the internet economy, the Sodium battery will similarly disrupt the current energy production and distribution eco systems. This is very positive and will really accelerate our Net Zero efforts and at the same time help mitigate the cost-of-living crisis by reducing domestic energy costs; we also have the prospect of new employment to install and maintain this new infrastructure.…and convert our domestic demand to be primarily electric based.
Given how early we are in the Sodium battery product lifecycle, their already impressive performance and cost will only improve over the next few years and far exceed the capability of the much more mature Lithium ecosystem, which is already reaching limits on costs and performance.
On a global scale it is clear China is leading the way. In Europe we need to stop prevaricating and catch up; and even the “drill baby drill” US will engage. There are already many US companies developing sodium battery capability (Eg Peak Energy in Denver) so once the price and impact become clear to more people, it will permeate that market as well. Not even the regressive incumbent Climate Change denying President can prevent it. In the UK we have to address the ignorance of politically inspired disinformation from the likes of the Reform and Conservative parties and seek to accelerate the introduction of Sodium battery capacity aligned to more renewable generation.
For Wales, I think Welsh Government and its new energy company Ynni Cymru should look to explore the rapid adoption of this new battery technology to complement local renewables generation for local communities and grids. At the larger scale and with its own constitutional powers over energy generation (inc. The Crown Estate) then Welsh Government should be looking to work with battery farm providers and grid operators to re-configure the network to maximise the adoption of Sodium batteries.
Some Useful Background
Tony Seba, Tony Seba, Author, Thought Leader and SV Entrepreneur
Car News China, 2025, CATL’s Naxtra sodium-ion battery passes new national safety standards, ready for mass production
The Limiting Factor, 2025 The Hype and Reality of Sodium Ion Batteries // A Technical Review
The Electric Viking, 2025, Tony Seba was RIGHT – Sodium Batteries Will Change EVERYTHING
Ben Alexander, 2025, Sodium Takes Over – Tony Seba’s Battery Prediction Comes True
Isidor Buchman ,2021, BU-402: What Is C-rate? – Battery University
National Energy Systems Operator, 2024, Energy losses in transmission and distribution
Out World in Data, 2024, Solar panel prices have fallen by around 20% every time global capacity doubled – Our World in Data
The Guardian, 2025, China breaks more records with surge in solar and wind power | China | The Guardian
Mark Barry, 2024, The climate emergency and car dependency
Sodium Ion Batteries Are Going to be EVERYWHERE – Here’s Why
Two bit da vinci, 2025, Sodium Ion Batteries Are Going to be EVERYWHERE – Here’s Why – YouTube
That this battery chemistry is comprised of a very common material, basically sodium that can be obtained from salt, and does not require any rare materials such as cobalt, means the cost could be 50% lower than LFP (lithium iron phosphate) at the cell level, which was lower in price than the original lithium cobalt and nickel manganese batteries.
It is the mixture of the cheapness of the cells and the ubiquity of salt that will disrupt the markets and maybe even the Chinese battery manufactures since sodium is not a material that can be throttled by any power.
If the UK regulators would allow “Balcony Solar”, plug and play, combined with 5 – 6 KWH batteries and nearly everyone could be off grid for part of the time at least.