In 2021/2, and following some discussions and meetings after the Welsh Affairs Select Committee published its review into rail investment in Wales (I also presented evidence and was involved in discussions), the idea of a joint Welsh Government (WG) / UK Government “Wales Rail Enhancement Pipeline” first appeared. I specifically suggested the idea of such in my meeting and subsequent correspondence with then Rail Minister Huw Merriman. I felt this was something that could help focus UK Government on the Welsh rail enhancement investment needed (and to be jointly funded by UK Gov and WG) in advance of fully devolving rail powers and funding. Even at that time there was a developing list of rail investment opportunities across Wales (some of which I helped initiate) – that could not possibly be funded by WG alone under the current constitutional arrangements.
Roll on to 2025. Last week I was invited to attend the launch of Transport for Wales’s (TfW) “Wales Rail Investment prospectus” on 13th December (in effect a Welsh Rail Enhancement Pipeline.) Timely as it followed the announcement at Cardiff Central Station a week earlier, that Metro Central works will progress over the period to 2028.
Disappointingly that prospectus launch has been deferred – no doubt due to the some WG/UK Gov administrative and/or political shenanigans. This is not unusual! It’s been 4 years cooking already, a few more weeks won’t hurt that much!
As a result, I did think about not publishing this blog, which I had prepared. However, I thought, no, I’ll tweak it and put it out there anyway.
But to not rock the boat too much, even though I have seen a draft, I won’t share specific details in advance of the launch, whenever that is rearranged. I can say though it aligns in part with my summary of future rail investment plans for Wales published in my book “How to build a Metro” last year (I did add perhaps a little more data/explanation) and in a range of blogs and articles.
In my book I set out the circa £4Bn of priority rail enhancements needed in Wales to 2040: the expansion of the South Wales Metro (especially in Cardiff via Crossrail, and capacity improvements on the Maesteg and Ebbw Valley lines), Network North Wales, the initial phases of a Swansea Metro and the upgrade of the SWML, NWML and Marches Line.
So, even though we await the formal launch of “the prospectus” let’s give enormous credit to TfW in bringing this strategic development work to this point. They will set out a pretty impressive list of possible rail investments in the Wales and Borders route over the next 15-20 years, backed up with data and evidence and which reflects a significant effort over the last 5 years.
With all the merited fanfare to congratulate the design, engineering and build teams led by TfW’s Dan Tipper, in respect of the current Core Valley Line (CVL) transformation and new Taffs Well depot, this document now reflects the work of TfW’s Planning Directorate led by Geoff Ogden and its very capable team of transport planners, project managers and supporting consultants (special note to acknowledge the efforts over the last few years of David McCallum, Rob Jones, Ruth Wojtan, Alex Fortune, Ben George, Paul Chase, amongst others). They have been working to develop schemes across Wales, an effort that has precipitated a close and effective working relationship with Network Rail’s (NR) strategic planning team in Wales led by Sarah Reardon, key local authority and regional partners and Department of Transport (DfT) officials. I would also add that the working relationship between TfW and NR in Wales is better than it has ever been; this reflects well on the leadership of those organisations.
Today, the collective capability and capacity of the Welsh rail industry eco-system, led by TfW, to undertake and lead such strategic rail enhancement development work in Wales, is now far beyond what the UK Government’s Department for Transport (DfT) and NR were historically able to achieve. Then add to this the impact TfW is now being seen to have – new and more Rolling Stock, the near completion of the electrification of the Core Valley Lines (CVL) as part of the Cardiff Capital Region Metro, tap on tap off PAYG, a new App, bringing catering staff in-house, etc. house, and now bus reform and a remit for truly integrated transport, etc.
At the same time in England we have seen the so far 15 year, £100Bn slow-motion car crash that is HS2, a project that is costing £Bns more than it needed to, and now seriously impacting the UK Government’s ability to invest in rail enhancements more broadly. HS2 is squeezing the DfT budget and will do so until 2035/40. This impacts Wales as well, given rail is non-devolved!
So, when people ask me. “Can Wales do this, does it have the skills, capability, etc?”, I reply, seriously! Have you not seen what WG and TfW are doing…and then compare that with the boondongle disaster that HS2 has become (we needed more rail capacity not speed – I made that point to then Sec State for Transport Justine Greening as long ago as 2011!).
The HS2 project is now so cut back, that it is left with 80% of the costs but only 20% of the benefits of the original scheme. There is no doubt it should have started in the north of England and been integrated with a “Northern Powerhouse Rail” scheme or variant thereof. Oh well.
The reality is that WG and TfW are doing good stuff, with a limited budget, limited powers…and far more effectively and efficiently than the DfT in England. Wales has one hand tied behind its back by Whitehall and the Treasury.
The level of ambition for Wales’s rail network offered by WG and TfW is clear; this is something that was missing for decades (apart from the South Wales Metro from 2011/2/3) but addressed in the period following the publication of my Case for Investment for Minister Ken Skates in 2018.
It also begs the question, why until TfW was established, did the DfT or NR (who have been, and are still, apart from the Core Valley Lines (CVL), custodians of our non-devolved railway) not bring forward such ambitious proposals in the previous twenty years? PS I know the answer and it’s to do with a very London/England centric Whitehall bureaucracy that impacts not just Wales and Scotland, but much of England as well.
This again provides further evidence that the current constitutional arrangement for rail in Wales (being non-devolved) are not fit for purpose – and are holding Wales back. TfW is way ahead of GB Railways.
Furthermore, the GB Railways Bill, aims to vertically integrate rail in England, but not in Wales. In fact, the vertical alignment in Wales should focus on that between TfW and NR in Wales and less so GB Railways! I make this point in my evidence to the Westminster Transport Committee’s review of the current draft GB Railways Bill. (If anyone trots out ill-considered objections to Wales having more powers, eg like “but the border”, etc…I did address those embarrassing arguments in my GB Railways Bill blog and evidence to transcom.)
However, I would point out that very little of the about to be formally announced £4Bnish Wales Rail Enhancement programme will happen under the current constitutional arrangements. For comparison, there are likely £80BN of rail enhancements on the conveyor belt in England to 2040. A population share for Wales would be circa £4Bn.
In contrast, this summer’s UK Government Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) set out just £300M of DfT UK Gov funding for enhancement to the NR rail network in Wales from April 2026-March 2030, Vs £34Bn in England. Yes, it’s that stark, a 100:1 ratio (but yes better than the 200:1 ratio I reported on under the last government a few years ago!). I made that point on Jason Mohammad’s radio show earlier this week.
Whilst I welcome the funding commitment, it falls a long way short of what is needed. For example, the £300M announced in the CSR is allocated to projects that will cost circa £600M to complete. Why were they not funded in full? The suggestion by the Chancellor Rachael Reeves that Wales got everything it asked for is frankly off beam. For example, even if the Metro Impact Study (Burns!) stations programme runs beyond the CSR period (and I would expect additional capital to be set out in a future CSR), UK Government could have contributed more to the current CVL transformation, or more to Metro Central, and some of the work in north Wales has been waiting for funding for years. The Operations, Maintenance and Renewals (OMR) and enhancement funding arrangements for the CVL referenced in the CSR are also woefully inadequate.
To deliver this ambitious enhancement programme, Wales needs no less than the full devolution of rail powers to WG, and importantly the appropriate adjustment to the block grant (which would also return the Barnet Comparability Factor to a healthy 90%+). Having to “gratefully” rely on fanfared Westminster political largesse to secure crumbs from the UK Rail enhancement table, is a constitutional dysfunction.
Based on current £24Bn pa in the DfT budget for rail (NR and HS2 expenditure) then an annual adjustment to the WG block grant of +£1.2Bn (circa 5%) would seem appropriate. Yes, this would have to cover the circa £400M pa for NRs OMR for the Wales Route (which actually include some sections in England like the Severn Tunnel and the Marches Line which need bespoke management and governance arrangements TBC), and some for the CVL but would likely still leave far more enhancement headroom than could ever be available or expected from UK Government under the current arrangements.
I have been at this for over 15 years and I can honestly say no-one has countered any of my arguments with better data (and we could all do with better data in this space, me included) or arguments so that I change my mind. Instead, I am often plagued by emails, letters and public statements that are more often than not misinformed, and political platitudes that fail to address and in many cases even recognise or understand, the underlying issues (including that bloke who appeared on Jason Mohammad’s radio show after me talking about London Bridge and its complex OMR expenditure requirements? …whereas I was specifically talking about Enhancements to the rail network – pls read this chapter). Most stuff like this is difficult and far more complex than it first appears once you pull back the outer layers…Even I don’t understand all of it, but enough to enable me to see the problems. I just wish more people also could.
So, as set out in my evidence to Westminster Transport Committee, the new GB Rail bill in its current form, which I characterise as, “For Wales, see England”, fails to address our key issues – lack of funding and lack of control. An MoU does not come close! I suspect most people I know in senior official positions in Wales rail industry ecosystem feel the same – but are unable to voice their views as openly as me.
So, whenever this TfW “Rail Prospectus” is launched, I would hope/expect that UK Government acknowledge the elephant in the room and set in motion a process over the next few years that results in a fully devolved settlement for rail in Wales AND a commitment to begin to properly fund the rail network now. If they are not going to do this, then I am, not sure what the point of any such launch would be?
All Welsh politicians need to get away from the spin and work to address this fundamental constitutional dysfunction costing Wales £Bns. Most Welsh Labour MS agree (those that were able even wrote a letter!) even if some Welsh Labour MPs don’t!
PS Just had this (the English Rail devolution process) pointed out to me….Westminster/Whitehall are just trolling Wales now aren’t they!
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
Useful References (articles & reports contain further data sources and references):
Welsh Affairs Select Committee,2021, Railway Infrastructure in Wales – Committees – UK Parliament
M Barry, 2024 The CSR, Wales & rail investment
M Barry, Welsh Government, 2018 The Rail Network in Wales, The Case for Investment
M Barry, 2024, How to build a Metro
M Barry, 2024 Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales
M Barry, 2024 Post CSR, Rail Investment and Wales
M Barry, The Metro Consortium, 2013, A Cardiff Capital Region Metro – Impact Study
2 thoughts on “A Welsh Rail Enhancements Pipeline…”