The CSR, Wales & rail investment

An abridged version of this blog appeared in Business Live/Western Mail on June 5th

I also added a little PS below on the day of the CSR 11th June! Despite the best efforts of Jo Stevens, Eluned Morgan, Ken Skates etc (and they have been really pushing this – so my thanks to them) what UK Gov seem to have offered, is just 4 out of 10 for me! See me after class!

PS My Post CSR blog is also available to peruse

In the next week or so, the UK Chancellor, Rachael Reeves and the UK Government will present their Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR).  That should, if London is listening, see some major commitments to rail enhancement in Wales – if not the Welsh Labour party needs to ask some serious questions about its relationship with London HQ. 

In respect of rail enhancement funding and lack thereof in Wales, I want to avoid the easy tendency to look back, as I did in in a full chapter in my book (and we could justifiably claim remedy for the lack of rail devolution, the failings of the Barnett formula and decades of relative underspend on Wales’s rail network by UK Government).

Instead, I want to focus on looking ahead and arguing for £4Bn of UK Government rail investment to 2040, as I set out in my letter to Heidi Alexander last December.   This is based on rail enhancement commitments likely in England of approximately £80bn over the same period; to complete HS2, TransPennine Upgrade (TRU), East West Rail, and some new schemes in England (some of which are already being pre-announced! including more trams in Manchester, Leeds-Bradford tram, Liverpool, Bristol and the West of England, etc!).  £4Bn for Wales would be a commensurate and “barnet fair” allocation and can be directed at schemes in Wales already subject to significant business case and scheme development.

To be clear, Wales needs this investment not just because its fair or right (that’s obvious).  It’s because of the benefits, especially economic, that can be realised.  Yes, the typical transport benefits, but more importantly the wider benefits. These include mode shift and reduced carbon emissions, economic agglomeration and development benefits, more Transit Oriented Development (TOD), reduced road traffic accidents, improved air quality, more financially efficient public transport operations, reduced road congestion (freeing up road space for those that need to use them) and less wear and tear of our roads.

As I set out in my book, “How to build a Metro”, in Wales via Transport for Wales, Welsh Government (WG), the regions and local authorities, we have already developed a range of rail enhancement schemes to at least Outline Business Case, commensurate with that scale of investment and which will deliver these wider benefits to 2040.  In summary they are:

South Wales Main Line (SWML) Upgrade (~£1Bn)

• We need to see the “Burns stations” (pretty much along the lines of the proposals in the 2013 Metro Impact Study and later presented in the Western Gateway 2050 Rail Vision) – so Cardiff East, Parkway, Newport West, Maindy, Llanwern and Magor,  and the complementary relief lines upgrade
  
• More electrification heading west to Swansea and Carmarthen
  
• New services including Bristol Temple Meads to Cardiff, with some continuing west from Cardiff to Swansea and Carmarthen (I would explore whether we could route one via the Vale of Glamorgan Line and Cardiff Airport). This will also include the new Open Access “Lumo” fast Carmarthen-Cardiff-London service which will skip Swansea High Street and Neath (but stop at Gowerton) enabling Carmarthen to function as a Parkway for West Wales
  
• I would also like to see the GWR services into South Wales mapped into the TfW “franchise” or GBR Cymru arrangements post the establishment of “Great British Railways” (GBR).

Swansea Bay and West Wales (~£0.5Bn)

There is very good initial phase of a Metro in Swansea/Neath/Llanelli which has been subject to significant scheme and business case development. The first key phases of this urban area rail Metro include two new key routes and services

• #1 Bury Port to Swansea High Street (SHS) with a new station at Cockett
  
• #2 A Pontardulais-Llandarcy-Neath-Swansea service using the Swansea District Line (SDL) and a new chord connection to the SWML at Britton Ferry to allow direct services to SHS from the SDL.  This can support new local Metro stations at Morriston, Llandarcy, Pontlliw. Felindre, etc. 
  
• We also need enhanced local rail services west of Swansea all the way to Milford Haven aligned to a range of tactical infrastructure enhancement – these complement some of the SWML service measures set out above
  
• This work needs to be combined with a focus on more and densified transit-oriented development (TOD) at primary stations like Llandarcy, Neath, Llanelli and in/around Swansea High Street stations.

North Wales (£1Bn)

Wales Transport Minister, Ken Skates set out a big vision for North Wales in Wrexham in May 2025 (“Network North Wales“). 

This vision needs to see some early measures and focussed delivery with an initial £1Bn programme that includes:

• Upgrade of borderlands and integration with Merseyrail and use of their new 777s electric stock; early measures to deliver capacity for freight at Padeswood
  
• North Wales Main Line (NWML) line speed and capacity upgrades to allow more services – both local all stopper with increased frequency, and long-distance express
  
• A rolling electrification programme
  
• New stations and key station upgrade; for example, Shotton (as an interchange), Deeside Industrial Estate and especially Chester to allow more capacity through the station
  
• Longer term the application of tram-train in both NE and NW Wales to expand the reach of the network.

Cardiff Capital Region Metro (~£0.5Bn)

Now there are good cases to be made for at least a further £2bn+ of rail and metro investment in the Cardiff Capital Region (CCR).  This includes the full Cardiff Crossrail, Circle, NW Corridor, Aberdare-Hirwaun, Cross valley, Caerphilly-Newport and an extension in Merthyr, etc.  However, the initial and pragmatic focus has to be:

• Deliver a Metro in Cardiff (which is not really delivered as part of the current South Wales metro programme, and so is a red line item for me)
  
• That means Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2
  
• At its core this needs to see the City Line and Coryton lines operate with at least 4tph instead of the 2tph planed, this needs work at Cardiff West junction, and a Coryton loop
  
• Then Station Link at Central to connect Crossrail Phase1a to the west, electrification to Penarth and tram-trains on Penarth – Coryton via the bay
  
• Then further Metro stations, including Roath Park, Ely Mill, Gabalfa, Treforest Ind Estate, Pontypridd North and a new platform at Cogan on a Penarth branch served by tram-trains
  
• Some further double tracking to the CVL to improve capacity and reliability
  
• Then new Ebbw Valley line services planned (to get 4tph south of Llanhilleth) routing to the Marches line and Abergavenny with a new stop at Caerleon and perhaps Sebastopol (this a better investment than the short extension to Abertillery)
  
• Maesteg line measure to deliver at least 2tph
  
• Then perhaps, the Coryton-Radyr link (in whatever form is appropriate) as this connection helps build our connected public transport grid and will support trips from a wide range of O/D points not just those in its immediate vicinity (eg Heath-Pontypridd, etc). It will also make the new Velindre hospital more accessible via PT from the north of Cardiff.

Marches Line (~£0.5B)

This line supports what is perhaps TfW’s most profitable service. It needs to be upgraded so we can offer a reliable sub-3-hour Cardiff-Manchester journey time, and reduced Cardiff-North Wales journey times.  This will require

• Some passing sections upgraded track (inc doubling Wrexham-Chester) & signalling and some electrification
  
• In some places new local services in NE and SE Wales so that local stations (eg Pontypool, Caerleon (new), Ruabon, Chirk, etc can be taken off long distance services and served instead by new local Metro services
  
• Further measures may be required at Crewe?

To restate re rail funding and UK Government…

But back to UK Government, given the £Bns committed in England (which I welcome outside London) we need to see a forward commitment of at least £4Bn to 2040 in Wales, anything less is just not acceptable, and would be politically toxic.

PS I didn’t mention rail devolution once! Be clear though, I still think this needs to happen – and before a Westminster election in 2029!

PS 11 June 2025 (CSR Day) ……

– In all this I didn’t mention the need for a formal settlement of the Core Valley Lines (CVL) for OMR and enhancements ( I should have as I did in my book). This is something HMT committed to resolved by now when the asset was transferred back in 2020ish. As an example, NRs 5-year OMR settlements for CP7 (2024-2029) is circa £44Bn, which includes~£2Bn for the Wales Route (now excluding the CVL) so circa £400M pa. The WG should be in receipt of circa £100M per annum for CVL OMR and a further amount for its enhancements. There would appear to be no clarity on that matter in the CSR statements today save for £48M over four years out of the £440Mish over the period to 2029/30 ?

I welcome any ££ from Westminster for Wales rail network (whether NR or TfW managed) – but on first reading this settlement seems inadequate. In summary, and to be comparable with England, Wales needs an estimated minimum £100M pa for the CVL (OMR) and circa £250M pa for enhancements on both the CVL and the NR network in Wales for 15 years.

Some postscript items for Welsh Government & CJCs and Local Authorities in Wales

#1 Bus

In addition to this core rail investment, we need to integrate these interventions with our new post bus reform redesigned bus networks (which will also need more ££). 

WG/CJCs also need to find the further infrastructure investment needed to deliver more bus priority and bus lanes, especially in our urban areas.  This will improve both the attractiveness of bus services and the financial efficiency of bus operations 

Also, as part of the reform and fully integrated Traws Cymru network  lest  introduce a new high quality  express bus service between Bangor and Carmarthen. 

#2 Transit Oriented Development (TOD)

As I have opined more than once – we have an obligation and need to respond developmentally to this kind of transport investment and build more stuff (homes, retail, office etc) around our public transport network.  This can be linked to a broader regeneration approach that can help our high streets, etc as I set out in a paper re Pontypridd and may require some form of “Metro Development Corporation(s).

#3 Road pricing!

Given the above and the reality that pricing is the easiest and quickest way to reduce congestion (just look at the impact in New York), we have to introduce road pricing or proxy thereof, in Wales.  Bluntly, car use is heavily subsidised and more of us need to appreciate that reality. I did set out the case in a chapter in my book.  Any pricing scheme has to be differentiated so that small lighter, electric vehicles pay the least and even perhaps nothing (especially in rural areas with limited PT alternatives), at the other end of the scale, big heavy, petrol/diesel SUVs used in urban areas pay the most!