Welsh Rail Funding – Ministerial Correspondence December 2024

Over the last 15 years I have met many officials and ministers at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay to discuss rail funding and projects in Wales; I published one note to the DfT Rail Minister re: Cardiff West a few months ago. Below is the note I issued to the new UK Transport Minister, Heidi Alexander, in December 2024. The DfT acknowledged and responded to this letter earlier in January 2025.

It is clear to me the issue of rail funding by UK Government in Wales has a much higher profile with both politicians and officials at Westminster/Whitehall than it has for a long time, perhaps ever. I do think the efforts of Ken Skates, Jo Stevens and Eluned Morgan and the wider political pressure being applied from all elected parties at the Senedd, (as well as the greater media focus in Wales) has helped raise the profile of the funding injustice and dysfunction and secure an acknowledgement of the issue by UK Government. This is no mean feat, as without the formulaic security of devolved powers and funding (including a block grant adjustment and an equitable means to deal with historic rail liabilities) Welsh Ministers are dealing with a Whitehall machine where Wales is more often overlooked, and over which we have little or no leverage. The 2020 WG analysis of historic relative underspend by UK Government on rail enhancement in Wales exemplifies this issue

The challenge now, in advance of a fully devolved settlement, is securing an equitable share of the “Wales & England” rail enhancement pot out to 2040. If, as I suspect, there is still £60-80Bn planned in England to 2040 (HS2 Phase 1 and 2a, Crewe-Manchester, Euston, TransPennine Route Upgrade, Northern Powerhouse Rail, East-West Rail, etc), then Wales should be asking for a ring fenced “Wales Rail Enhancement fund” of circa ~5% or £4Bn over the same period – approx. £260M per year?

 
FAO Heidi Alexander, UK Secretary of State for Transport
CC :
Ken Skates MS, Cabinet Secretary for the Economy, Transport and North Wales
Jo Stevens MP, Secretary of State for Wales

Minister, you will almost certainly not remember, but we appeared on a panel together at the 2019 UK Rail summit in London (along with Barrie White and Simon Kirby).  I brought to the attention of the audience the underfunding of rail enhancements in Wales relative to the rest of England.  As you know rail infrastructure is not devolved to Welsh Government and is the responsibility of your department on an England & Wales basis. As best as I can tell there are perhaps £80Bn of rail enhancements on the books for England out to 2040 (complete HS2 – including to Euston –  TRU, NPR, East-West Rail– and likely ££ for Metro schemes in Leeds, etc); in stark contrast  I can only see UK Government forward commitments for rail enhancements of less than £400M in Wales….yes a 200:1 ratio!  I am not sure yet whether a satisfactory and equitable arrangement for dealing with CVL OMR has been established either?

I just want to restate my evidenced position that there is a serious and long-standing funding gap re rail enhancement in Wales – and this is not for a lack of good candidate projects.   Back at the 2019 event I was publicising the strategic work I had led for Wales’s then (and now again) Transport Minister, Ken Skate MS, making the case for further investment on the SWML, NWML, Borderlands, Swansea Bay Metro, etc.    Those cases are now even stronger as I helped TfW establish Metro development programme which have further developed business cases for schemes all over Wales.   However, none of the very robust cases for investment will progress without some major change in the rail funding ecosystem vis a vis Wales.   This should not be the case in a modern functional democracy.

I discussed this matter, one to one, with a previous rail minister, Huw Merriman, in 2023. He did appear “to get” the Wales issue and that ultimately full devolution, a revision of the block grant and future revised Barnett treatment would be required.   In the interim we discussed the prospect of a ring-fenced rail enhancement fund for Wales – outside of the current RNEP which has systematically overlooked Wales for years. 

I am more than happy to meet to further this case. However, I would ask that you act on the overwhelming body of evidence   and some of the more recent papers/document  (including those I have prepared – especially a recent correspondence with DfT Minister’s re Cardiff West). 

Being more parochial, and with a Cardiff hat on, I would urge a serious look at funding Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2 (including the urgent need to address the capacity issues at Cardiff West) as this has the potential to facilitate a major mode shift away from car use in Cardiff and deliver a major economic boost to the wider Cardiff Capital region at the same time.  It leverages the committed investment in the CVL ( being led by WG/TfW)  AND Cardiff Crossrail Phase 1a, faciitates a solution to SWML platform capacity constraints at Cardiff Central, as well as providing the robust foundation for the full £1bn Cardiff Crossrail scheme to 2040 (which has the largest mode shift and economic impact potential of any scheme in Wales). The core 20Km rapid transit opportunity can be delivered for significantly less than half of a typical new build (est. £2~3Bn) given it is focussed on making much better use of some of the poorly utilised rail assets in/around the city.  In UK terms this is “low hanging fruit”.

I am due to speak at the 2025 UK Rail Summit and will cover some of these opportunities.

I attach relevant links for your officials and look forward to your response. (And please ask your officials in any response not to set out the Wales Route OMR settlement for CP6 and CP7 unless they also show the overall settlement for all the other routes and the Wales Route proportion – thank you)

Welsh Government 2020 Analysis of Historic Rail enhancement underfunding by UK Gov in Wales
Cardiff West Junction… –Letter to DfT & WG Ministers 2024
Cardiff Crossrail (2019 – with updates)
Why UK City Regions need Metros (like the South Wales Metro) 2024
The rail industry, Wales & HS2 – and the Barnett Formula (2024)
Story of the South Wales Metro (Book Oct 2024)
No rail devolution? No Swansea Bay Metro! (2024)
Levelling Up, Working Together? A Transport Enhancement Programme for Wales (2021)

Best Regards

Mark Barry
M&G Barry Consulting Ltd
Professor of Practice in Connectivity, School of Geography and Planning, Cardiff University.

PS I did set out more broadly in my book what I think the priorities are and the data/evidence that led me this assessment….

The priority schemes for Wales
Date/Evidence in support
Some Transport Planning principles to apply
and What else need to happen

Enjoy…