Now we all know that there are many public transport projects that we really do need, but seem never to have the money and/or political will to progress. In the Cardiff Capital Region (CCR) I would say these include: getting 2tph to Maesteg, 4tph Metro services in Cardiff, more bus lanes, more local services on the Marches line to Abergavenny, etc
What exacerbates the frustration of this lack of progress, is seeing money and political support for projects that don’t seem as important or useful (at least to me!) as many others stuck in development. Although to be clear all the schemes below have merit.
Here I set out some examples that perhaps demand some reflection from all of us….and suggest perhaps that our institutional and governance structures in respect of rail and public transport funding have some intrinsic weaknesses?
Does Caerphilly need a new £33M station – or just an appropriate upgrade?
Recent comments and statements from Lyndsay Whittle MS really brought this home to me – and I think he is mostly right re: Caerphilly Station. Plans are now well advanced for a £33m demolition and rebuild of Caerphilly station which handles circa 630k passengers per year (Cf Cardiff Central 12.5M, Queen St 2M, Cathays 930k, Pontypridd 780k). This investment will deliver a high-quality statement project that brings together metro rail, bus, active travel with hopefully further urban regeneration in the town.
But £33M is a lot of money – and what problem are we solving here. Do we need to completely demolish the original Victorian station building? Could we secure the majority (if not all) of the benefits with a smaller investment? More relevant perhaps, are there other more important regional projects that are deserving of that kind of funding?
I had, like many, just thought yes, this is a good scheme and merits the investment. However, let’s look at Caerphilly station; it’s a classic Victorian build, with 6tph into Cardiff and rather rare in Wales, already has an adjacent and integrated bus station served with feeder buses from the wider locality.
Yes, it is tired and lacking some basic modern station facilities, but does it really need a £33M rebuild that would obliterate the original station building. Is there not a more human scale intervention that enhances the existing Victorian station and improves accessibility, integration, facilities, wayfinding, provides new toilets, café, etc.
For example, what might £10M do to that station instead….and what else could we do with £23M elsewhere in the region.
Perhaps we could consider a new station on the Metro at Pontypridd bus station to properly integrate rail and bus at that location, or a new station at Roath Park in Cardiff to improve access to Caerphilly from Cardiff and to Heath Hospital from the wider region; or we could consider how we might extend the Metro from Ystrad Mynach to Nelson on the old freight line, and yes, even fix the Maesteg line to get 2tph to Bridgend? Politically more pressing perhaps, is the implementation of a range of bus prioritisation interventions across Cardiff and the CCR to complement bus network redesign as part of the upcoming Bus Franchising programme?
I think Lyndsay is right to raise the question. I like many, hadn’t thought enough about the scheme vs other candidate schemes in the region. Maybe this highlights the need for a mayoral led and a truly strategic regional approach, rather than one that inevitably requires some pork barrel politics to broker schemes from priority lists generated from ten local authorities?
Why did we need a new £9M pedestrian bridge at Tenby Station
Another scheme that is now nearly complete, also looks like an overspend to address a problem that was perhaps overstated. NR have nearly completed a new pedestrian bridge and lifts over the rail line at Tenby station. This nearly £9M scheme will replace the existing at-grade pedestrian level crossing at the end of the current platforms at the station. Yes, it probably improves passenger and rail safety. But what was the level of risk, how much will it be reduced and how much are we spending to do so? The step free access is though a welcome and necessary investment.
As I asked Kevin Collins (NRs Director of Enhancements for the Wales and Western Region) at a recent rail event, why do we need a bridge over a rail line that has just 1tph in each direction, with the trains actually stopping and passing at the loop at Tenby station. He noted this was funded via, I think, the DfT Access for All programme. However, surely an upgraded at-grade pedestrian crossing (which are used on lines elsewhere with such low service frequency) would have been far better Value for Money (VfM) – even at 2tph it still looks like overkill given places like Ty Glas that are 4tph has a new PedXing. Perhaps, some of the ££ could have been diverted to the long asked for St Clears station?
Like above, perhaps if all the funding and decisions on where the money is spent in Wales, were based and made in Wales, then we might have a more joined up approach to scheme development and delivery? Another reason to fully devolve rail powers to WG.
Do we need a £60-80M Metro rail extension to Abertillery
Maybe both the above schemes are cooked in. However, there is another upcoming scheme that we also need to interrogate. There is a long-standing desire to reconnect Abertillery with a short ~4km reopening and connection from the existing Ebbw Valley line at Aberbeeg. This would be linked and part of a bigger scheme (circa £100m) to secure 4tph on the Ebbw Valley line (with 2tph to Ebbw Vale and 2tph to Abertillery).
Yes, I like the scheme. However, this provides an example in CCR that ought to be influenced by limits on capital funding and an honest appraisal of where costs and benefits fall. The stark reality is that most of the benefits of the scheme are associated with securing 4tph on the existing line south of Llanhilleth, and most of the capital costs to extend the line to Abertillery. A 4tph provision on the existing line could be achieved at much lower cost with a turn back at Llanhilleth (only a single track to Ebbw Vale and new road at Cwm has constrained a doubling) and instead serve Abertillery with a more cost effective regular frequent integrated bus service, probably operating from Brynmawr (as part of bus franchising).
In fact even with a higher capex, the longer term Radyr-Coryton connection (and there are several variants) on the Metro will deliver far more regional benefits given the higher number of Origin and Destination points connected by the link vs the Abertillery extension.
Instead, the capital funds could deliver more benefit by enhancing the Marches line to Abergavenny (including a turn back at Abergavenny) to enable local Metro services of at least 2tph (which it currently does not have) operating via Newport from the Ebbw Valley and perhaps one or two additional stations, including Caerleon. This would have the additional benefit of removing some of the local stops from the long-distance Manchester and North Wales services so reducing their journey times.
If the Wales Rail Board is effective it will surely come to the same conclusion.
Should we reopen the Carmarthen-Aberystwyth rail line…or not
This is another long-standing project with some romantic support…. which in part I share. Clearly such a scheme would have local benefits and strategically provide Wales greater N-S rail connectivity in the west. However, given the route, topology and alignment constraints it would not enable a service much different in journey time from the express bus service.
This would also be a very expensive project of at least £1Bn (even if adopting a Lighter Rail format) and likely far higher; it would also have a very onerous subsidy requirement given the low catchment population. In fact, the total demand profile on this corridor is significantly less than that associated with the first phases of a Swansea Metro. What is our priority?
Furthermore, progressing with this capital-intensive scheme would inevitably mean other rail enhancements could not progress and that funds to support operation of other PT services in Wales would be constrained. It would also distract us from more important schemes for at least ten years!
So yes, there is strategic case that can be made for such a scheme, but it has an opportunity cost in impacting progress on many other “better value for money” schemes. In fact, an express bus service can be more affordably and quickly established in the west. The new electric T1 bus service between Carmarthen & Aberystwyth is already driving a significant increase in demand. Just last month Welsh Government committed to fund a N-S Express service in the west – a much more pragmatic and better VfM scheme.
Final thoughts…
Evey scheme has an opportunity cost in deferring more useful and better VfM scheme that have to be deferred. In times of scarce ££, we have to progress the schemes that really deliver the most benefits.
If it was up to me, I’d cancel the current Caerphilly station project and bring forward a more appropriate scale enhancement. I’d also defer any further work on an extension to Abertillery (and instead ensure the bus franchising delivers a 4tph service from Brynmawr via Abertillery to Llanhilleth and beyond. Instead, my priorities for SE Wales are those schemes that deliver the most PAX at least capex and opex, and which can catalyse wider benefits & regeneration, support bus/rail integration, etc. For example:
- New Station at Pontypridd Bus Station
- 2tph on the Maesteg line
- Marches line enhancement south of Abergavenny with a new station at Caerleon linked to securing 4tph on the lower section of the Ebbw Valley Line
- Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2 (including the vital Station Link)
- The Aberdare-Hirwaun extension
- Extending the Rhymney Line Metro from Ystrad Mynach to Nelson using the freight line (in advance of a more ambitious link to the TAM lines)
- A range of bus prioritisation interventions across Cardiff and the CCR, to complement bus network redesign as part of the upcoming Bus Franchising programme?
- And of course, getting the full £600-700M UK Government funding needed for the Burns Stations and services (inc Cardiff Parkway) …in fact the UK Gov should fund all the above, they have offered £14Bn after all!
If you want to familiarise yourself with other tough choices and how we make them, then take a look at:
Transport Planning basics, compromises and choices
Some “Metro” suggestions for TfW’s Board & Welsh Government…
South Wales Metro moans in 2023
Metro and other hopes for 2025…
Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales
Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales
Focus on delivering more trains on the City & Coryton lines. Build additional stations @Crwys Road, Ely Bridge, Talybont, Roath Park and Cardiff Parkway.
Scrap the Cardiff Central £140 million upgrade.
For years, Wales has been starved of its fair share of rail infrastructure investment—most famously missing out on billions in consequential funding from England’s HS2. Because of this underfunding, whenever a £140 million package finally gets approved, the political pressure is to accept it gratefully and quietly, rather than pointing out that it is essentially a sticking plaster on a broken system. What will likely play out between now and the 2029 completion date looks like: Maximum Disruption for Minimum Gain: Commuters will face years of weekend closures, evening diversions, and construction barriers, only to be handed a station that has the exact same number of tracks, platforms and tunnels they started with. The “Event Day” Test: The very first time a 75,000-person capacity concert finishes at the Principality Stadium after the remodel, the “holding plaza” strategy will face reality. If thousands of people are left freezing under an archway while the subways still jam up, or pushed out on to Central Square because the unpaid section before the gates has shrunk with the gates being brought forward, the logic will be tested in real-time. Future Retrofitting: Eventually, when the station inevitably hits its limits as passenger numbers climb towards 30 million a future government will likely have to spend five times as much money to fix the platforms and install an overbridge. Rethink needed.