Today, Tomorrow, Together…

PS I covered some of these details in a BBC Wales Podcast with Felicity Evans and James Williams – Walescast
A version of this blog also appeared on the Business Live website

Transport for Wales (TfW) has just published (18^th February 2026), “Today, Tomorrow, Together”, its rail investment prospectus,.    This is two months later than the original plan for the launch on 12^{th of} December 2025,  when I penned a few words on a potential “Wales Rail Enhancement Pipeline”.

Given the presence of Prime Minister Keir Starmer alongside First Minister Eluned Morgan at the launch event today, such bureaucratic diary changes are entirely justified and not untypical of government announcements – especially when trying to coordinate UK Government diaries.

To complement the publication, the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer and UK Government have acknowledged the need for more UK Government investment in Wales’s “non-devolved” rail network and committed to fiscally support the programme over the longer term.

The Vision set out by TfW implies capital funding across Wales over at least 15 years running into the multi £Billions – the headline is £14Bn into the 2040s. In the short term this includes restated commitment to the SWML upgrade and Burns Stations/services, funding to support Cardiff Parkway and interventions in North Wales (including the new Deeside Ind estate station).

Whilst there appears to be no further funding in the current £300M Comprehensive Spending Review (CSR) period to March 2030, this is still a political endorsement from the Prime Minister to a rail investment programme in Wales of circa £1bn per year post the next CSR. This is a necessary but not sufficient condition to actually secure the funding required.

More immediately pressing is the early need to bolster the June 2025 £300M CSR commitment, to fully fund the initial schemes set out by the PM and FM and to reflect the reality that the schemes in the Comprehensive Spending Review, and restated today, have a price tag of probably £600-700M.  These are:

• SWML Relief Line Upgrade
• 7 new “Burns” Stations now including Parkway ( or the South Wales Metro Impact Study stations as I prefer to call them!) and additional Rolling Stock for the additional Cardiff-Bristol services
• Metro Central
• Cardiff West
• Padeswood sidings
• NWML Level Crossings
• Deeside Industrial Estate Station

UK Government could also have acknowledged that WG have funded most of the South Wales Metro from its block grant (so impacting resources for Health, Education, etc) and offered to increase its contribution so that further schemes could be initiated now.  For example, the electrification to Penarth, “Station Link” and a passing loop on the Coryton line as part of Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2 (see below) to enable 4tph tram-train operation for Penarth-Bay-Coryton services.  This will free up Stadler Tri-modes for the new Cardiff-Bristol “Burns” services.  UK Gov and HMT should also have offered a more reasonable ongoing settlement to cover the OMR costs for the CVL. We could have seen further funding to accelerate development of the Metro in Swansea….and where is my Crwys Rd station!

Nonetheless, this new political commitment is clearly a positive step in the right direction toward the full devolution of rail powers and funding, which is what Wales needs.  Not least because, full devolution and a fair, commensurate block grant adjustment, locks these commitments in place and avoids the risk of new Ministers and/or governments at Westminster “changing their mind”.  I also think, in advance of a fully devolved settlement,  this Wales Rail Enhancement pipeline needs its own DfT budget line.

PS there was a suggestion that it would not be possible to “devolve powers” to Wales, at the same time as delivering this investment programme. I find that inexplicable, not least because at the same time UK Gov are undertaking the biggest reconfiguration of the UK Rail industry in 30 years via the GB Railways Bill!. This is the best time to address this long-standing constitutional dysfunction!

Overall, I accept this announcement as a positive step forward toward the ultimate goal of a fully devolved rail network in Wales. I have no doubt the efforts of Eluned Morgan, Jo Stevens, Ken Skates as well as Peter Hendy, were instrumental in raising the profile of Wales’s rail investment needs at Westminster to secure these political commitments.  So, credit where credit is due…a big well done from me.

To “applaud” this positive announcement, I want to make a few brief points (even if I repeat some earlier reflections) themed around the prospectus title, “Today, Tomorrow, Together”.

Today…

The TfW document is a pretty impressive list of possible rail investments in the Wales and Borders route over the next 15-20 years and reflects a significant effort over the last 5 years by TfW (some of which I helped initiate) and the support of Welsh Government.  This effort has also precipitated a close and effective working relationship with Network Rail’s (NR) strategic planning team in Wales, key local authority and regional partners and Department of Transport (DfT) Officials.

The collective capability and capacity led by TfW to undertake and lead such work is now far beyond what the UK Government’s Department for Transport (DfT) and NR were historically able to achieve in respect of rail enhancements in Wales. 

The level of ambition for Wales’s rail network is clear; this is something that was missing for decades but addressed in the period following the publication of my Case for Investment for Minister Ken Skates in 2018.  

It begs the question, why until TfW was established, did the DfT or NR (who have been, and are still, apart from the Core Valley Lines (CVL), custodians of our non-devolved railway) not bring forward such ambitious proposals in the previous twenty years? PS I know the answer and it’s to do with a very London/England centric Whitehall bureaucracy that impacts not just Wales and Scotland, but much of England as well.

So enormous credit to TfW in bringing this strategic development work to a wider audience.  It pretty much  aligns with my summary of future rail investment plans for Wales published in my  book in 2024 (I did add perhaps a little more data/explanation). It includes the expansion of the South Wales Metro (especially in Cardiff via Crossrail, and capacity improvements on the Maesteg and Ebbw Valley lines), Network North Wales, the initial phases of a Swansea Metro and the upgrade of the SWML, NWML and Marches Line.

Tomorrow…

Now to a little critique of TfWs prospectus. Whilst I am 80/20 very impressed, I can l see the impact of the internal politics of WG, DfT, TfW and NR. These bureaucratic shenanigans are normal – esp. at Westminster – and do not detract from strategic intent.

The glaring Metro omissions in the current programme are in Cardiff – the requirements for a minimum of 4tph Metro services on the City and Coryton Lines which are long standing.  This omission is thankfully reflected in the prospectus.  However, they need to be the priority for the next stage of Metro development, as “fixing” Cardiff will drive the most additional passengers for the fewest track km of any schemes in Wales, so it makes financial sense as well.

Furthermore,  Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2, is entirely absent as a coherent programme. Yes, its component parts are in there but are fragmented in presentation and development.  This is despite the fact that TfW are working on the business case with Cardiff Council?  This for me reflects some admin and/or political compromises within WG/TfW?

Figure 1 Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2 (from How to build a Metro)

This Crossrail Phase 2 programme omission is even more surprising/disappointing given the total benefits are greater than the sum of the parts.

For example, from earlier draft work I was involved with, Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2 has the potential to secure 1.5~2M additional passengers a year (PAX) to the CVL (it currently handles circa 10M~12M pa). The full Cardiff Crossrail (so east to Tremorfa/Newport Rd, Radyr-Coryton Circle connection and the NW Corridor to RCT) could add a further 5M PAX.  These are very significant numbers, by far the biggest of any scheme in Wales, and will have a big impact on delivering our 2040 Net Zero Wales Public Transport mode share targets.

Furthermore, the economic impact of the full Cardiff Crossrail was also estimated to add a further £900M to the economy given it helps bring forward development and regeneration opportunities across the network. This is in addition to the base £700M economic benefits calculated for SE Wales/Metro and set out in the TfWs prospectus.

As relevant, the full Crossrail will serve parts of Cardiff’s southern arc that have significant socio-economic challenges. In fact, despite some assertions to the contrary, there are more people in Cardiff living in communities in the top10% of the Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation  (WIMD) than any other local authority in Wales (about 20% of the Welsh total); in fact, nearly twice as many as the next on the list, RCT, closely followed by Swansea, Newport and Neath. Whilst good transport connectivity is not sufficient on its own to ensure benefits to these communities, it is a necessary component of a solution.

A more holistic and wider benefits approach is consistent with the upcoming revision of the green book. To paraphrase, the guidance requires more focus on place-based business cases that bring together different projects (eg transport, property, housing, etc); less dependence on simple BCRs; and improvements in methods to appraise long term transformational change that result from projects.

To deliver Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2, which I estimate is a circa £200M programme, requires:

• 4tph on the City Line (enabled by the commitment to upgrade Cardiff West junction)
• 4tph on the Coryton Line which needs a passing loop and further rolling stock
• Electrification (OLE) to Penarth and operation of tram-trains for Penarth-Coryton services, and backfilling of 2tph from Caerphilly with tram-trains to the bay
• The Penarth Trimodes can be used for the new SWML Burns services  – this is the most cost-effective rolling stock solution for the new Burns Cardiff-Bristol services – this also demonstrates a very strong interdependence between the Burns SWML programme and Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2, where the total benefits are greater than the sum of the parts.  I set out this RS opportunity in my evidence to the Senedd in 2018
• “Station Link” – this is a network keystone and provides a short connection from the new Crossrail platforms at Cardiff Central to the existing lines to the west to allow Penarth/Coryton tram-train services to operate via the bay and Crossrail Phase 1a
• New stations at Gabalfa, Ely Mill ad Roath Park and an additional platform at Cogan for Penarth services
• Reversing of some CVL transformation value engineering
• Revised and simplified service patterns
• Lloyd George Avenue Landscaping/Urban Realm
• Ideally, we also include Crossrail Phase 1b to Pierhead St

In particular, Station Link (was called “the ramp”) is not, as TfW set out, a long-term aspiration as part of NW Corridor– it is a fundamental and urgent need for Cardiff AND the CVL network now. It will:

• Help address fundamental CVL network capacity, redundancy and resilience issues – this will benefit the entire CVL Metro network
• Provide the necessary capacity and redundancy for CVL services whilst Intersection Bridge is being renewed (this bridge takes the CVL south of Queen Street over the SWML, to the bay and Central); it had issues in 2024 which pretty much closed down CVL services, and which will need urgent attention in the near future
• By allowing some CVL/Penarth services to route via the new Crossrail Platforms it frees up platform capacity at Central that, subject to a little further track work, makes possible more room for additional SWML services
• Offer more legible CVL Metro service patterns.

This work needs wrapping up into a single “Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2” programme, combined with the committed SWML work (esp. given Rolling Stock interdependencies).

Also important, but not, unsurprisingly, overtly mentioned in the rail prospectus is the role of buses and integration. In urban areas, we are trying to develop integrated  multi-modal networks of rail, light rail, bus and active travel.  On high demand “Metro” corridors the rail services (which can carry the most people per vehicle) are the arteries and the local feeder bus services the capillaries. In the next 5 years the implementation of bus reform and re-designed bus networks will be equally as important as rail investment to deliver the public a single public transport network, as will the need to secure more bus revenue support.

Finally, I did offer a quote for the TfW prospectus, but it wasn’t used!

The development and current implementation of the South Wales Metro is perhaps the most impressive achievement of the Welsh Government since devolution; a laudable effort and commitment that survived Covid and wider economic and political challenges.  Through Transport for Wales, it is implementing the complex transformation of the Core Valley Lines north of Cardiff to deliver faster, more reliable, “turn up and go” metro services” and a complete overhaul of the train fleet and services for the entire Wales and Borders franchise. TfW is now taking on the challenge of bus reform and redesigned and integrated bus networks to create a single joined up passenger experience, no matter what the mode.  These once in a generation endeavours will have significant positive economic and environmental impacts across all of Wales. 

More especially the application of tram-train capability for the Metro has enabled priority schemes like Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2 (which will deliver “turn up and go” Metro services to all of Cardiff’s stations to augment those already being delivered to the valleys and connect Crossrail Phase 1 to the west).

Crossrail Phase 2 and subsequent phases (Circle, NW Corridor, Bay to Newport Rd), will fill in the gaps, and extend the reach of the Metro network across Wales’s most populated area and collectively deliver the largest environmental, economic and regeneration benefits, and mode shift, of any in Wales. 

Together…

Whilst the UK Government have now recognised the scale of investment needed and justified in Wales.  We are still a long way from the “right” constitutional settlement.

In England the GB Railways Bill will deliver the badly needed vertical integration of track and train.  But not in Wales! Why not? Are Whitehall officials even aware of the oversight and its implications in Wales?

As mentioned above, the operational working relationship between TfW and NR in Wales is probably far ahead of any other NR Route/Region and their local Transport Authority and/or DfT.  However, the current GB Rail bill risks dragging the NR Wales Route back into a hugely centralised bureaucratic organisation setting back Wales and its rail network years.

This provides further evidence that the current constitutional arrangement for rail in Wales (being non-devolved) are not fit for purpose – and the vertical alignment in Wales should focus on that between TfW and NR in Wales and less so GB Railways!  I make this point in my evidence to the Westminster Transport Committee’s review of the current draft GB Railways Bill. (I also counter the “but the border” nonsense I so often hear in there as well)

To be clear, despite these new announcements, to build on and enhance what has already been delivered in Wales (despite the obvious constitutional constraints),  to ensure systemic fair funding and to empower WG and TfW to drive forward integrated transport policy, we need to fully devolve rail to Welsh Government and make the appropriate block grant adjustment (that also reflects its scale and relatively more depreciated state vs the rest of the UK rail network). That will also return the Barnett Wales/DfT comparability factor to a healthy circa 95% ensuring much more equitable Barnet treatment in future.

Finally

So, on the prospectus a good effort and my appreciation to Vernon, James, Geoff, Sam, David, Louis, Ceri and the team for getting it out there!  Over to the politicians to sort out the constitutional mess re rail powers and funding in Wales!

Useful References (articles & reports contain further data sources and references):

M Barry 2025, A Rail Enhancement Pipeline

M Barry 2025, GB Rail Bill, For Wales, See England”

M Barry, 2025 The CSR, Wales & rail investment

HM Treasury, 2025 Green Book Review 2025: Findings and actions – GOV.UK

M Barry, Welsh Government, 2018 The Rail Network in Wales, The Case for Investment

M Barry, 2024, How to build a Metro

M Barry, 2024 Future South Wales Metro, Cardiff Crossrail & Metros across Wales

M Barry, 2024 Post CSR, Rail Investment and Wales

Welsh Government, 2025 Welsh Index of Multiple Deprivation (WIMD) 2025 local authority deprivation profiles | StatsWales

M Barry, The Metro Consortium, 2013, A Cardiff Capital Region Metro – Impact Study