I have just written to rail and finance ministers at both Westminster and Cardiff Bay. There is a UK Government budget coming up and an associated Spending Review in 2027. Wales needs to see some tangible and substantive capital commitment from UK Government to investment in its rail network.
Note from Prof Mark Barry vis a vis Wales Rail Enhancement Priorities to 2030/31 – as at 3 October 2026
FAO:
UK Government Secretary of State for Transport, Heidi Alexander MP
UK Government Minister of State (Minister for Rail), Lord Hendy of Richmond Hill CBE
UK Chancellor of the Exchequer, John Healy MP
UK Government Secretary of State for Wales, Stephen Kinnock MP
Welsh Government Cabinet Minister for Enterprise, Connectivity and Energy, Adam Price MS
Welsh Government Deputy Minister for Transport, Mark Hooper MS
Welsh Government Cabinet Minister for Finance, Rt Hon Elin Jones MS
Ministers
My views, vis a vis Wales, in respect of the dysfunction of the rail industry ecosystem (institutional responsibilities, government funding, etc) are well known, especially my well evidenced critique of the historic and projected levels of enhancement funding in Wales. I would urge you all to read my recent stark report for the Senedd which pivoted of data provided by the ORR, and which invited DfT, HMT etc to contribute and review. My recent advice to the new Plaid Cymru Government also provides useful context.
However, here I want to be pragmatic and focus on what I view a view as the immediate rail enhancements required in Wales to 2030/31 and which justifies a UK Government commitment of £1~1.5Bn. A draw down from the £14Bn announced by UK Government earlier in 2026. Something to consider in the upcoming budget and the next Spending Review in 2027.
This focussed package is based around delivering the maximum benefits for the least capital, makes use and can apply the tacit knowledge and capacity already established in TfWs supply chains, and so can be delivered “quickly” with clear political direction.
This package is also based on the most developed schemes that TfW have progressed in the last couple of years. Vis a vis Cardiff, the package will be enable more benefits to be extracted from Cardiff Crossrail Phase 1a and the most welcome enhancement at Cardiff West. These measures will also help improve both PAX on CVL as well its overall operational capacity, redundancy and reliability. Station Link (via a CVL service optimisation) can also free up platform capacity at Cardiff Central that would be prohibitively expensive and disruptive to provide in any other way.
I’d be surprised if these don’t match the priorities of the Wales Rail Board – although the content and development process is not something that is associated with sufficient transparency or challenge in my view.
Onto specifics..
Assuming TfW complete the O/S CVL metro works by end 2027 (so Crwys Rd station, Cathays Station upgrade, Queen St remodelling, 368 roll out, etc)…and also complete Cardiff Crossrail phase 1a with partners in 2028/9…
Then the Welsh rail enhancement priorities for 2027-2030/31 is to secure all the necessary capex from UK Government to complete the “already announced enhancements” as well as some key further projects. This to be drawn down from that £14Bn and delivered by 2030/31:
- Cardiff West Junction enhancement (combined with renewals) to enable 4tph on City Line – UK Government has already committed to progress this combined with the planned renewals in 2028/9. Given the interdependencies I suspect there is merit in combining this project with “Station Link” (which is part of Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2)
- Relief Line upgrade and Burns stations (including Cardiff Parkway as a 2-platform station, with passive provision for 4) & additional TfW services to Bristol Temple Meads from Cardiff/Swansea (including cascade of Trimodes from CVL Penarth services and back fill with additional Tram-trains)
- Metro Central (WIP)
- Complete Cardiff Crossrail Phase 1a (WIP)
- Padeswood sidings and 2tph Borderlands service
- NWML level crossings removal
- Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2: 4tph on City & Coryton Lines, 3~4 new stations (so Roath Park, Gabalfa, Ely Mill, platform at Cogan), “Station Link” (vital to connect Xrail to the west and deliver more overall network redundancy and capacity), OLE to Penarth & tram-trains for Penarth integrated with Crossrail
- Reverse some CVL Value Engineering
- 2tph on Maesteg branch
- Crossrail Phase 1b to Pierhead St
This looks to be circa £1~1.5Bn programme over 3-5 years?
A range of other schemes that have already been subject to some initial development need to secure more development funding over the next 2 years so they can be programmed for delivery in the early/mid 2030s. For example, further Swansea Metro, North Wales Mainline enhancements, Lower Marches Line/Ebbw Valley enhancements (eg including Caerleon station), Borderlands 4tph and integration with Merseyrail, Chester Station, OLE to Swansea and on NWML, Intersection Bridge renewal, SWML upgrade west of Cardiff, Future Crossrail Phases (inc the Radyr-Coryton link) etc
Happy to discuss.
Best Regards
Mark