Mark Barry-Predictions for 2026…

Image credit: CNBC

I do like a new year blog, but rather than “go on” about transport, the South Wales Metro, etc, this year I thought I’d share a few predictions for events, changes, etc more broadly we might see in 2026…

Here are my efforts from Jan 2025!

#1a First, the AI bubble will burst

A combination of factors will come together in the next 12-18 months and likely reset equity and market values across the world.  This is as a consequence of the massive over valuation of a small number of AI companies (eg recent S&P 500 rises have been driven by this handful of companies, including Meta, Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia, Oracle, Open AI, Coreweave amongst others).  Their values are I suspect, inflated by circulating debt and double counting revenues, share buy backs, changes to accounting methods re asset depreciation (with clear tax benefits!), etc.  Then add large amounts of unregulated debt in shadow banking, recent increases in Japanese bond yields and its consequential impact of making US debt less attractive. We also can’t ignore the increased volatility Trump tariffs are causing re investment decisions and especially the permanent reconfiguration of some international supply chains (away from US) and a general stagnation of the US economy outside of the inflated AI valuations.

Perhaps most disruptive is the potential for Chinese AI services like DeepSeek to radically undercut the costs of AI to US and western consumers and so deflate AI valuations of US based companies. As I picked up from a Prof Scott Galloway, the Chinese approach to offer 80% of the functionality but at 50% of the cost, and more quickly, will hit hard.

I think this will land somewhere between the dot.com crash of 2000 and the financial crash of 2008.   So not good, but probably needed.  A 40% reduction in equity markets!  Hold on to your hats.

To be clear, I still think AI will be a thing, a very big thing, that will present all sorts of existential challenges to us as humans and how our society and economy functions….we are just at the beginning of the journey.  Hold on to your hats! For example….

#1b The creative industries will be radically impacted by AI – especially Film and Music

Reflecting on a conversation with my sister Sarah (re Films) and listening to music guru Rick Beato, two stark futures re production and consumption of film and music hit home – and we will begin to see this stark reality accelerate in 2026…

First, AI produced music will be applied, by the large record companies/labels, to the rights and music they own. Do you want to hear the next Prince album, Queen, Buddy Holly, T Rex, Michael Jackson, Stereophonics, etc; new AI content based on the original music of these artists will be increasingly quicker/easier to generate and will find a big commercial audience. Why would any of these companies want to invest in new bands, artists or music when they can generate and distribute more of what they know is already popular!! I still think there will be a desire for musicians and live music, but its space will be commercially reduced and squeezed by more AI content.

Similarly, in the film and TV world (and as my sister Sarah suggested to me), it won’t be long before we can use AI to create personalised and bespoke films and other content. Why would people fund and produce expensive films and TV shows that require enormous costs for actors, sites, locations, props, etc when AI can produce something much more quickly and easily. It may not be very good at the start, but like music, it will squeeze the commercial space available for real productions, with real actors. Maybe the future for actual actors will be theatre! It’s the beginning of the end for Hollywood and the Netflix model!

In both the above scenarios, real and live artistic content and performance may become more niche and more valuable. In fact, AI will create a distinct space, even if commercially smaller, for any content, products, services, etc that have a “human component” – something I suggested back in my 2017 “Hand Made in Ebbw Vale” blog.

#2 New First Minister of Wales

Plaid Cymru’s Rhun ap Iorwerth will become the First Minister of a new Welsh Government post the May 2026 Senedd elections.  Both Plaid Cymru and Reform will do very well (and the Greens to a degree), but I’m not sure who will be the biggest party, with both securing circa 30% of the vote. If I had to stick my neck out, I think Plaid will just nick it (based on Caerphilly).  However, I am pretty sure that Reform and the Conservatives will not secure enough Senedd seats to form a majority.  So Plaid, Greens and Labour will form a majority centre/left block that in effect supports a Plaid led Welsh Government.

This is one of the benefits of a proportional system (even though imperfect). Something Westminster sadly lacks leaving open the prospect of a party with just 30% of the vote winning an overall majority – this is not democracy.  Those of us who have been calling for PR at Westminster for years are now being joined by those who can now see the folly of Starmer’s resistance to this essential democratic safety valve.

#3 New UK Prime Minister

I think the above combined with big Labour losses in England’s 2026 local election as well as in Scotland, will put even more pressure on the Labour leadership, which I suspect will be challenged and probably replaced before the end of 2026…possibly by Andy Burnham (subject to him finding a safe seat somewhere!).   To be clear whilst I have my issues with UK Labour and Keir Starmer on some matters (esp. rail devolution and fiscal policy) they are a country mile better than the alternatives on the right at Westminster offered by Farage, Badenoch and their populist cheer leaders who are all division, undeliverable promises and no detail!  More snake oil is not going to help fix the UK.

On that basis the “European question” will loom larger. More people are beginning to see and acknowledge the folly of Brexit and the permanent damage it has done the UK economy.  So, post a Labour leadership change, I do expect a more overt discussions re: closer ties with Europe (via some proxy of a Customs Union and perhaps Single Market membership) and in so doing, kicking the idea of US Chlorinated Chicken on UK shelves into the Gulf of Mexico!

I also think a Rhun ap Iorwerth led Welsh Government may get along much better with a more “devolution/constitutional reform” friendly UK Labour Government…? this may help us all on this island properly engage the question, What sort of Britain do we want? (PS because the one we have now is broken!)

#4 The pendulum swings back to the Democrats in the US 2026 November Mid-Terms

In the US, the Republicans will lose both The House and (probably) The Senate – and some MAGA will lose faith in Trump with splits and schisms opening up.  This won’t solve the US problems, but Trump will become a sitting duck president.  However, much damage has been done to many US institutions (as well as its international reputation) that will take a concerted cross-party effort to fix – probably over many years. A darker scenario could play out in that the division and the negativity just increases and extinguishes any flicker of hope for the future.

We’ll have to wait probably until 2028 before they can restore the proper name of the Kennedy Centre for Performing Arts!

#5 Tram-trains will be running on the South Wales Metro for passengers in 2026

OK a little Metro – Yes, in 2026 (my 2025 prediction went awry) we will finally see tram-trains operating on the South Wales Metro; from Merthyr, Treherbert and Aberdare through Pontypridd to Cardiff Central and Cardiff Bay. However, we will probably have to wait until 2027 before we get the full Metro timetable with doubling of frequency and reduced journey times.  I also think the penny will drop on the need and benefits of securing funding for and progressing Cardiff Crossrail Phase 2. This will include commitment for further OLE to Penarth and more tram-trains for Penarth-Coryton, probably by the end of 2028 or even into 2029 (by which time Cardiff West and Coryton line capacity issues should also be resolved). For the full Metro story take a look at my 2024 book, “How to build a Metro“. More disappointingly we probably won’t see work start on site at Crwys Rd station until 2027!

#6 Climate Change risks continue to increase

With the general lack of effective global action and the impact of locked in temperature rises, we will see more extreme weather in more places, with increasing environmental, societal and economic impacts. This will incrementally persuade some of the doubters, but still not enough, to challenge our infected political ecosystem to address the issue with the seriousness it deserves.  I feel we need a major climate change related weather incident in the US to really turn the dial….(as if more powerful hurricanes, more fires, etc weren’t enough!)

To those that say it’s just the weather….no its not. As an analogy, it’s like cancer from cigarette smoking. One can never point to the specific cigarette that caused the cancer, we just know that the collective impact of so many cigarettes corelates with an increased risk of lung cancer.   In the same way we know that more carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is raising global temperatures, changing the climate and making our weather more volatile and extreme in more places. This is evidentially true, even if we can’t point at a specific weather event and attribute it to climate change.

More positively, I also think that more people will begin to appreciate the failings of our simplistic GDP metric to assess the state of countries and places, and that the need to properly account for the negative externalities of all our activities – especially related to carbon emissions and environmental degradation. I did start to set out me concerns back in 2019

#7 More positive news re renewable energy – and an electric future

China’s global lead in electric cars and renewables (esp. solar and wind) will accelerate and begin to demonstrate to the laggards (even in the US) that this is the way to go.  When combined with the emergence of new lower cost batteries – (esp. Sodium Ion batteries for short term grid and domestic storage) the space needed for large scale fossil fuel and nuclear in our generation ecosystem will begin to diminish.  Yes, we have a lot of infrastructure to build out in the UK (grid reconfiguration, local grids, smart domestic uses, etc), but the signs from places like China will be clearer re: where we need to go.  

Gas as a transition will still be important…. but new oil? not so much.  Even the new nuclear proposed (eg Wylfa) may have its market undermined by new battery technology (esp. reduced costs for battery storage and its ability to move into the LDES market) and increased renewable capacity (esp. solar which is now the lowest costs energy source). 

These changes, combined with more efficient use of electric energy, will be transformational over the next ten years for global energy generation, distribution and use.  Energy will become a pure technology and not one requiring costly and complex supply chains and raw materials.

#8 Laboratory grown meat at scale will become commercially viable….

Image Credit: Firn

After years of development, I suspect the prospect of replacing millions of farm reared cattle, chickens, etc with a meat supply chain based on volume “lab grown” meat will become more real. The same will apply to sea food. 

Looking at the ££ going into large commercial ventures one has to accept the prospect of a real disruption in our global food supply paradigm.   Not sure when, but over the next 10-15 years I suspect we will see “factory produced” meat beginning to replace millions of methane producing and tree destroying cattle farms and ranches.   There will still be traditional farms based on local small-scale provenance etc – so good for high quality local meat in Wales – but those enormous industrial ranches cutting swathes across the US, Brazil, etc will eventually become redundant!   This is potentially very good for the environment (less incursion of precious eco systems and reduced amount of methane in the atmosphere) and animal welfare. 

When viewed alongside the development and growth of renewable energy and battery technology, there are some emerging reasons to be more optimistic that we can address the climate and environmental emergency we face.

#9a More revelations in the US re UAPs?…

I did write a couple of years ago re the increasing public debate in the US re UAPs (including at Congress and via multiple senior US military and intelligence witnesses).  I suspect all this smoke does indicate the presence of a fire of some sort.  

Not sure if/when we will finally get to the bottom of this…. but I expect more revelations in 2026 and perhaps some move toward getting us closer to the truth– whether prosaic or not. My assessment in that 2024 blog remains unchanged. We have three options: #1 a massive, engineered disinformation pysop is still being played out #2 a lot (tens/thousands) of very capable and credible witness are completely mistaken or #3 a real existential disclosure of a very different world is due?

The major problem in this space, is that it is very hard to isolate real “credible signals of interest” amongst all the noise and clearly wild claims and assertions proffered with little or no evidence.  Whilst I enjoy the production of interesting questions one has to really focus on the evidence (or absence thereof) that may or may not support any claims.  I keep these quotes (from the likes of Sagan and others) in mind in this space:

• One needs an open mind…but not so open your brain falls out
• Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence
• Absence of evidence is not evidence of absence
• Hold wonder and scepticism in equal measure.

I think the role of SOL Foundation in this space can only help.  Despite the absence of clearcut evidence, I actually still lean toward #3!

#9b A increasing recognition that we need to address the growth in pseudoscience

Given my limited exploration of, and reflections on, the UAP phenomenon, it is clear to me that across the social media and YouTube world, we have become more exposed to dishonest and often grifting content, that actually makes honest scientific endeavour, questioning and discussion in the public space more difficult. 

This is especially true of “pseudo-archaeology”.  For example, I have a Graham Hancock book as I thought he asked some interesting questions about the origins of civilisation. However, his books are mainly assertion based, and weak on actual evidence. Whilst he can be clearly very eloquent and entertaining, he does not compare to actual experts in this space. I have to give a nod here to Flint Dibble (and others) who has had to deal with negative You Tube and Social Media pile ons, enabled by people like Graham, Joe Rogan and others who can amplify and spread pseudo-science in this space!

I think Joe Rogan in particular, ought to recognise his responsibility (and his opportunity) to add more scientific rigour to the content he broadcasts, especially given the size of his audience. A democracy does not only require free speech…it requires an informed (and not mis-informed) electorate!

So, yes, let’s ask questions and don’t always accept direction/guidance from authority without question (although when asking questions, one is more likely to get an informed answer from an actual expert in the field rather than that bloke down the pub or on YouTube, Facebook, etc !).

Let’s also not forget the greatest tool we have at our disposal to help us answer questions and to understand the world around us; The Scientific Method: observe, theory, test, evidence, analysis, rethink, retest, challenge, peer review, etc! 

As I wrote on Climate Change denial in 2023, a little knowledge can be dangerous. So, for many commentators, a basic literature review before opining wouldn’t go amiss either!

The number of ill-informed actors on social media and YouTube, able to spread their ill-thought through ideas and conspiracy theories to millions of people, is pretty alarming! If you don’t believe me look at the increasing numbers of Wakefield/RFK inspired anti-vaccine and “we didn’t go to the moon” conspiracy theorists…let alone the barking mad flat earthers! 

Bertrand Russell is reputed to have said the following, which is sadly very apt for our times:

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, and wiser people so full of doubts.

Yes science can be wrong sometimes, but is only found to be so by better/more science, not by “that bloke down the pub”.

#10 Welsh Sport…

I’ll keep this short and sweet. Cardiff City will secure promotion back to the Championship, Cardiff Blues finish top 8 in the URC, Wales win 2 games in the 2026 Six Nations, and Craig Bellamy will guide Wales through the final qualifiers to the World Cup Finals in the US later in 2026!

Oh, and we’ll end up with three professional rugby teams in Wales: Newport, Cardiff and the Neath-Swansea Scarlets!?!

#11 Finally, Reform and The Conservatives stop going on about 20mph and end their misinformed, divisive and manufactured, “war on cars” rhetoric 

So, yes, both Reform and the Conservatives finally engage with the reality and the evidence that overwhelmingly demonstrates the road safety, health, air quality, urban realm etc benefits of 20mph limits (and other road safety measures).  They will also finally recognize the reality of induced demand and that more roads just generate more car trips and that the easiest and quickest way to address congestion is to “price the road” and build more public transport alternatives.  A real damascene change!

Nah – only kidding, both Reform and The Conservatives will double down and continue to lie and misinform on all matters car, road, 20mph, etc (as well as more divisive rhetoric re: immigration) as they see this tactic as electorally advantageous!  It will no doubt be one of their issues at the Senedd elections in May.  Such a lack of intellect, integrity, honesty and political imagination is deeply depressing!

Blwyddyn Newydd Dda!